UEFA Nations League permutations: Can England be promoted, who will be relegated, and who will qualify for finals?

The UEFA Nations League is now an established tournament in the minds and eyes of the football-watching public — even if it's yet to truly gain a prestigious reputation.

It will never rival the FIFA World Cup or European Championship, but the Nations League — both the UEFA version and the CONCACAF tournament — is now a trophy that countries actively want to win, even if just to add a prize to their cabinet.

Now in its fourth iteration, with Portugal, France and Spain winning the previous tournaments, the business end of the 2024/25 UEFA edition is now approaching.

The Sporting News goes through the permutations for each team, examines England's hopes of promotion, and looks at how this iteration of the Nations League may conclude.

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UEFA Nations League format 2024/25: How have things changed?

The main change to the UEFA Nations League format for 2024/25 is the introduction of a quarterfinals and playoffs phase that will take place in the March 2025 international break.

The top two from each group in League A will contest two-legged quarterfinals between themselves. In Leagues B, C and D, there's still just one automatic promotion spot up for grabs. Teams that finish third in League A and League B groups will face runners-up from League B and League C groups respectively in two-legged promotion/relegation playoffs, also in March.

The winners of League D1 and D2 will be automatically promoted to League C, with the two worst last-place teams across the four League C groups relegated. The other last-place League C teams will contest promotion/relegation playoffs with the two League D runners-up.

Counting down to Thursday ⏳#NationsLeague | #AdidasNTF | @adidasfootball pic.twitter.com/7HhKlQ8Swx

UEFA Nations League permutations: Who will qualify for the the 2024/25 final?

The league phase for the 2024/25 Nations League will be wrapped up by November 19.

Here are the permutations for each Nations League group ahead of the final matchdays, correct as of matches on Thursday, November 14. You can see the updated group tables here.

League A

In Group 1, Portugal secured their place in the knockouts with an emphatic 5-1 victory over Poland. Second place is currently Croatia, although they were denied qualification on November 15 after losing to Scotland. The final round of games will determine the order of those three teams behind Portugal.

Group 2 is guaranteed to see Italy and France advance to the quarterfinals, with the former in control of the seeded spot. Israel are bottom and without a single point, and are unlikely to climb out of that spot unless they clobber Belgium on the final matchday.

Germany have already qualified for the quarterfinals as they sit on 10 points after four games in Group 3. Netherlands and Hungary are locked on five points, competing for the other quarterfinal spot and looking to avoid relegation. They face off in a vital game on Saturday, with the winner likely to secure second. Bosnia & Herzegovina are bottom and must win both their remaining games to avoid relegation.

Spain are the other team to have secured a quarterfinal spot, sitting on 13 points in Group 4. Switzerland were relegated as a result of their 1-1 draw on matchday five with Serbia, who will face Denmark early next week in a game that will decide who finishes second and third in the group.

Teams qualified for UEFA Nations League quarterfinals 2024/25

League B

Group B1 is wide open, with Czechia, Georgia, Albania and Ukraine all still in with a shot at promotion with two games left — but also at risk of relegation.

Greece were in charge of Group B2 on maximum points (12) after four games, but England picked up an enormous 3-0 win to put the Three Lions in control of their own destiny, needing just a win in the last match to advance. Finland haven't picked up a point yet and are guaranteed to drop down. Republic of Ireland are locked into a relegation playoff as third-place finishers.

In Group 3 Norway and Austria have taken firm control of the standings, and while Slovenia are within striking distance of promotion, they will have to beat Kazakhstan by a hefty total to make up tiebreakers. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, will be relegated.

Turkey are assured of a spot in the promotion playoffs in Group 4. Behind them sit Wales, Iceland and Montenegro. The latter are pointless and can only reach relegation playoffs, at best, but can still (and may well) be relegated automatically.

League C

In Group C1, both Sweden and Slovakia are assured of at least a promotion playoff spot. The two will meet each other on Saturday in a key clash; if Sweden win, they'll surely finish top because of their goal difference. Azerbaijan cannot be promoted, having lost all four games, and neither can Estonia.

In Group 2, Romania are on maximum points and look favourites to go up. They and Kosovo, whose game was suspended on Friday after players walked off the pitch apparently due to chants of "Serbia" from Romanian fans, are both guaranteed a top-two berth. Neither Cyprus nor Lithuania can be promoted.

Northern Ireland took control of Group 3 by beating Belarus, who cannot now finish top. Michael O'Neill's team will be guaranteed top spot if they win their final game against Luxembourg, who are definitely finishing bottom.

North Macedonia are dominating Group 4 (13 points from five games) having guaranteed themselves the top spot for get promotion. Armenia, Latvia and the Faroe Islands could all still go down.

League D

There are only two groups of three in League D, with Liechtenstein the only team who cannot be promoted automatically. In Group 1, Gibraltar and San Marino are chasing top spot and Malta and Moldova are locked on six points apiece in Group 2, with Andorra without a point so far.

Can England get promoted?

They can, thanks to their victory over Greece on matchday five.

It's been England's mission to get promoted back to League A of the Nations League after the disappointment of their 2022/23 campaign when they dropped out of the top tier of the competition. However, the Three Lions' unexpected 2-1 home defeat by Greece could have cost them dearly, as it allowed Greece to continue their perfect record to sit top of Group B2 on 12 points after four games, with England on nine points after the same amount of matches.

Lee Carsley's team responded with an impressive 3-0 away win over Greece to take top spot in the group. If they beat the Republic of Ireland in their final game, they will secure promotion; if they draw that match and Greece do not beat Finland, England will also be promoted as they have a superior head-to-head record against the team below them.

Greece must avoid defeat to Finland to have any chance of snatching back top spot.