U.S. inflation may have worsened last month as Trump’s tariffs start to bite

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation likely accelerated in June as sweeping tariffs on nearly all imports may have pushed up prices for electronics, appliances, and other goods, economists forecast.

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Consumer prices probably rose 2.6% last month from a year ago, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May, according to data provider FactSet. The Labor Department will issue its inflation report at 8:30 a.m. eastern. On a monthly basis, prices likely rose 0.3% from May to June, the largest increase since January, economists project.

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Worsening inflation could pose a political challenge for President Donald Trump, who promised during last year’s presidential campaign to immediately lower costs. The sharp inflation spike of 2022-2023 was the worst in four decades and soured most Americans on former president Joe Biden’s handling of the economy.

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Faster price increases would also likely underscore the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut its short-term interest rate, as Trump is loudly demanding.

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Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, inflation is forecast to have risen 3% in June from a year earlier, up from a 2.8% rise in May. On a monthly basis, it is also expected to have picked up 0.3% from May to June, according to FactSet. Economists closely watch core prices because they typically provide a better sense of where inflation is headed.

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Trump has imposed sweeping duties of 10% on all imports, plus 50% levies on steel and aluminum, 30% on goods from China, and 25% on imported cars. Just last week the president threatened to hit the European Union with a new 30% tariff starting Aug. 1.

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So far, the tariffs haven’t noticeably pushed up inflation, which has been mild for the past four months. Core inflation has fallen from 3.3% in January to 2.8% in May, though that is still above the Fed’s 2% target. If inflation in June is much weaker than economists forecast, Trump will likely renew his demands that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell immediately reduce borrowing costs.

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Powell and other Fed officials have emphasized that they want to see how the economy evolves as the tariffs take effect before cutting their key short-term rate. The Fed chair has said that the duties could both push up prices and slow the economy, a tricky combination for the central bank since higher costs would typically lead the Fed to hike rates while a weaker economy often spurs it to reduce them.

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Trump on Monday said that Powell has been “terrible” and “doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing.” The president added that the economy was doing well despite Powell’s refusal to reduce rates, but it would be “nice” if there were rate cuts “because people would be able to buy housing a lot easier.”