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The 2025 Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 3, at Churchill Downs in Louisville.
No. 8 Journalism (7-2) is the clear favorite and will almost certainly go off as the chalk when it comes time to sound the bugle on Saturday evening.
Not only is Journalism coming into the Run for the Roses on a four-race winning streak at three different tracks culminating with the Santa Anita Derby on April 5, but he also drew well in the No. 8 post position.
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It’s tough to poke holes in Journalism’s résumé, but this is a 20-horse field featuring the best 3-year-olds in the world. There is always the potential for chaos with this setup.
One way to take advantage of the expected chaos is to build a handful of exotics (exactas, trifectas, and superfectas) with long shots.
Here are some horses to consider – either with or without Journalism – to juice up the price on your Kentucky Derby exotics.
2025 Kentucky Derby picks: Horses to use in exactas, trifectas
No. 3 Final Gambit (15-1): There are plenty of question marks around this Kentucky-bred gray, but it’s hard to ignore the combination of the price, the trainer, and the improvement in his last race.
Final Gambit has never raced on dirt before – hence the price – but his connections, including legendary trainer Brad Cox, believe he’ll fare just fine after his workouts at Churchill Downs.
What really jumps off the page for Final Gambit is his last race. He took a massive step up in class at the Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks and beat a field of 12 horses by three lengths while posting some impressive speed figures.
Another step up would make him a contender in this field.
No. 7 Luxor Cafe (12-1): A Kentucky-bred, Japan-raised horse, there’s a lot of fun stuff to dig into with Luxor Cafe.
Luxor Cafe is looking to become the first Japanese horse to win the Kentucky Derby. APThe cons are pretty clear. Japanese horses are 0-for-8 in the Kentucky Derby, he’s never raced in the United States, and his jockey, Joao Moreira, is making his debut in this race.
The pros are that he lit up the Fukuryu Stakes, is a terrific closer, and is the son of Triple Crown-winner American Pharoah.
Ah, the modern Kentucky Derby trend of falling for a Japanese horse.
Like Final Gambit, Tiztastic is a Kentucky-bred horse that seems to be peaking at the perfect time.
No. 17 Sandman (5-1): The third favorite on the morning line, Sandman should enjoy the conditions of this race. There is plenty of speed in this field, so an adept closer like Sandman should have every opportunity to pass tiring horses as we come down the stretch.
There are some concerns about Sandman’s pedestrian record at Churchill Downs, but those races took place when he was a 2-year-old, and it seems pretty clear he is a different horse now.
Who knows, maybe those worries, along with the fact that the No. 17 post has never produced a winner at the Kentucky Derby, will allow this price to drift closer to double-digits ahead of post time.
No. 21 Baeza (21-1): Keep an eye on this price on Saturday, as a lot of veteran railbirds were hoping they’d get the chance to bet on Baeza in this field. Originally an also-eligible, Baeza got into the field after Rodriguez scratched.
Baeza ran a terrific second behind Journalism at the Santa Anita Derby, and could be one of the favorite’s main rivals in this field if he can take a step forward and overcome this post position.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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