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Don’t let the Ugly Underdogs get hot! One of our favorite programs, UMass, got us to the window with a herculean effort in a 42-6 loss at Missouri in Week 5, easily covering the 44.5-point spread and running our record in this column to 4-1 on the season. We thank the Minutemen for digging in, but we don’t have time to rest on our laurels. We’ve got a 20.5-point spread to cover in Graceland on Saturday night.
The Memphis Tigers are heaps of fun. They’re working on the longest active winning streak in FBS at nine games, and they’ve won 26 of their last 31 games going back to 2023.
They’ll likely add to those totals this Saturday when they host the Tulsa Golden Hurricane as a 20.5-point home favorite.
The hiring of Ryan Silverfield to replace Mike Norvell, now at Florida State, looks like a stroke of genius, and Memphis will be hoping to get its hands on some more of that FedEx money to keep Silverfield on Beale Street. The 45-year-old has already been linked to the vacancies at Arkansas, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma State.
It’s no wonder why Silverfield projects to be one of the hottest names on the carousel this offseason. Not only does he have Memphis on the path to claiming the Group of 5’s bid in the College Football Playoff, but the Tigers are doing it in style.
Memphis has scored at least 20 points in 45 straight games, the longest active streak in the country.
The key to the Tigers’ success is their imposing rushing attack. Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. are one of the best 1-2 punches in college football, with each tailback already being honored as the country’s best running back for one week this season.
With Smith and Desrosiers humming, Memphis ranks seventh in the country in rushing yards per game (250.8) and 11th in yards per rush (5.8).
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Greg Desrosiers of Memphis celebrating. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectThis all makes it sound like Tulsa is in for a long night on Saturday, but I’d argue that the Golden Hurricane actually matches up well against the Tigers, at least relative to their expectations as a three-score underdog.
When Tulsa hired Tre Lamb as head coach this offseason, it was clear that he had a huge job on his hands. One of the youngest coaches in FBS, the 36-year-old was known as an offensive maestro at the FCS level, but he’s done a terrific job of improving the Golden Hurricane’s defense.
It’s still nothing to write home about, but it’s in much better shape than last year, when it was one of the worst units in the country.
Will they be able to end Memphis’ streak of getting to at least 20 points? Most likely not. But can they keep the Tigers closer to 30 than to 40? I think so.
With a competent defense and an opponent who wants to run the ball all night – Memphis ranks 13th in rush rate – the path to a cover is there, so long as Tulsa’s offense does its part.
The Golden Hurricane should stand a chance of accomplishing that goal, especially since they rely more on the pass than the ground game. Memphis is terrific at jamming up runs, but they’re closer to mediocre in the air.
Memphis has won nine in a row, they’re 5-0 against the spread this season, and they have one of the hottest names in college football on their sidelines. Everything is coming up Tigers, which means the bandwagon is getting full.
That means its the perfect time for us to sell high. Even if it means betting on Tulsa.
The Play: Tulsa +20.5 (-110, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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