Trump’s Tariffs Are Likely to Stick Around Despite Unpopularity

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(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs are drawing anger from trading partners and voters but the leverage and revenue they offer could make it hard for future presidents to fully give them up.

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A longtime advocate for a more protectionist trade agenda, Trump argues that his policies have unleashed a US economic boom, and when they haven’t, he says the duties are useful sticks in negotiations with trading partners. He continues to threaten more tariffs against allies like Canada, even though polling consistently shows that the tariffs are unpopular with voters, who are already frustrated with stubbornly high inflation. 

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But while criticism mounts globally and domestically, that doesn’t mean a future president would fully roll back Trump’s agenda, experts said, suggesting a Democrat could seek to make changes, to smooth relations with allies and ease the economic impact, without throwing them all out. For example, former President Joe Biden maintained — and in some cases expanded — the tariffs Trump implemented on China during his first term. 

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“I do think in general tariffs are going to be more sticky than a lot of people believe,” said Josh Lipsky, vice president and chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council, who noted that the tariffs are part of broader trade deals and provide revenue. “I think the pull of this will be hard to get away from.”

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The latest tariff action, a 10% or 12.5% duty on imports from most trading partners, took effect Friday. They’re based on allegations by the Trump administration that the targeted countries and economies failed to prevent forced labor in their supply chains, which several have said are baseless. 

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Trading partners see it as unlikely that the forced-labor levies are rolled back any time soon, according to an official from a European Union member country. It’s also doubtful whether there will be a return to the lower duty levels that preceded Trump, as the US disposition toward tariffs doesn’t change much between administrations, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

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Revenue Raising

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The Tax Policy Center estimates that tariffs will raise about $1.7 trillion in the next 10 years, with $179 billion raised in 2026. The revenue will decline over time according to the TPC projection, as US buyers will gradually shift away from imports with high duties. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called this the “melting ice cube” theory of tariffs.

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But tariffs are a Catch-22 when it comes to the deficit. The revenue they generated in 2025 and early 2026 did help to narrow the US budget gap before Trump’s ‘emergency’ tariffs were invalidated by the Supreme Court. But tariffs can also be a drag on economic growth, making it harder to reduce the deficit-to-GDP ratio.

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The latest effort is also not as lucrative as the sweeping tariffs that were struck down, and which the administration is currently in the process of refunding. A new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says the current tariffs, including those announced this week, will replace less than 60% of the revenue lost by the ruling.

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Even when Trump acknowledges they don’t work, he has offered tweaks to his tariffs rather than giving up on them wholesale.