Trump’s Rapid Shift on Texas Senate Race Underscores GOP Risks

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Cornyn “represents, by far, our very best hope of making sure that Texas stays red in November,” Thune said in an interview on Fox News. The president “knows full well how important it is that we hold Texas in the Republican column, Republican hands.” 

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Ending the race soon would also allow Republicans to focus their money and other resources on the Democrats rather than fighting each other. 

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The Texas races have already become the most expensive primaries on record, according to AdImpact, which has been covering congressional races since 2018. The Republican candidates booked $95.1 million in advertisements through the end of February, with Cornyn responsible for over two-thirds of the spending. He has received the support of some of the state’s biggest political donors, including energy billionaire Kelcy Warren and real estate magnate Harlan Crow. 

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The Democrats spent $27.5 million on advertising, with $22.1 million of that coming from Talarico.

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Comments from the Cornyn and Paxton campaigns on Tuesday evening showed how vicious and costly the runoff in Texas would be if it drags out to late May. 

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“Nearly 60% of Texas voters who have known Cornyn for over 40 years, after hearing $100 million worth of ads, chose to vote against the incumbent. That’s historic,” Paxton said.

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Chris LaCivita, a Cornyn adviser, pledged Tuesday that “the second wave” of the campaign will be bruising for Paxton, threatening another volley of attacks. 

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Trump has both acknowledged and expressed bewilderment that incumbent presidents historically tend to lose seats in midterm elections. Yet the Senate, where Democrats have more seats to defend this year and where tossup possibilities are fewer, has been seen as something the GOP is likely to hold on to. But in a handful of elections around the country since November, Democrats have outperformed, raising the specter that a “blue wave” could narrow or eliminate Republican control there too. 

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Read: MAGA Moment, an Upstart Triumphs and $120 Million: Texas Edition

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The Cook Political Report currently rates seven Senate races as “toss ups” or leaning toward one of the parties, as opposed to being a likely or safe seat for either party. For Democrats to retake the Senate, they would need to defend Jon Ossoff’s seat in Georgia while flipping seats in states such as North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, Ohio or Texas. 

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It’s a tall order. Democrats haven’t won statewide office in Texas for more than three decades. Senate challengers have never come within nine points of beating Cornyn, who was first elected to the Senate in 2002, although then-Representative Beto O’Rourke came within three percentage points of ousting Senator Ted Cruz in 2018.

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Trump didn’t say how imminent his decision is beyond the vague promise that it would be soon. But it set up a scramble by both sides to rally support. In a memo Tuesday, a political action committee aligned with Paxton, Lone Star Liberty PAC, argued that it was Paxton who was the most electable option because Cornyn has “lost the trust of the Republican base,” calling him a “Washington relic.”

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‘Staying In’

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In an interview Wednesday on Real America’s Voice, Paxton said he won’t drop out. 

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“I’m staying in this race,” Paxton said. “I owe it to the people of Texas.” 

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Cornyn, who is backed by the powerful National Republican Senatorial Committee, has cast himself as the most palatable standard-bearer and already begun to run ads targeting Paxton over his impeachment and alleged improprieties.

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Marc Short, a former aide to both Trump and ex-Vice President Mike Pence, emphasized the stakes in keeping the Senate. 

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“I think there’s going to be a much greater risk than people have appreciated that the Senate flips,” he said. “And I think if Cornyn is the nominee, I think it’s a higher likelihood Texas stays in the Republican column.”

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—With assistance from Gregory Korte and Bill Allison.

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