Trump Privately Weighs Quitting USMCA Trade Pact He Negotiated

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(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump is privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact, people familiar with the matter said, injecting further uncertainty about the deal’s future into pivotal renegotiations involving the US, Canada and Mexico.

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The president has asked aides why he shouldn’t withdraw from the agreement, which he signed during his first term, though he has stopped short of flatly signaling that he will do so, according to the people who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe internal discussions.

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A White House official, asked about the discussions, described Trump as the ultimate decision-maker and someone always seeking a better deal for the American people. Discussion about potential action amounted to baseless speculation before an announcement from the president, the official said.

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An official in US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s office said that a rubber-stamp of the 2019 terms was not in the national interest and the the administration intended to keep Trump’s options open and negotiate to address issues that had been identified. 

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Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity and declined to directly address whether Trump was musing about an exit from the trade pact. Greer said Tuesday that the administration would hold separate talks with Mexico and Canada, arguing that trade ties with Canada are more strained. He did not say whether Trump would approve an extension.

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“Generally speaking, these negotiations are going to proceed bilaterally and separately, the Mexicans are being quite pragmatic right now. We’ve had a lot of discussions with them. With the Canadians, it’s more challenging,” Greer said on Fox Business.

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The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is set for a mandatory review before a possible extension on July 1, a process that was once expected to be routine but has transformed into a contentious negotiation. Trump has demanded additional trade concessions from Ottawa and Mexico City and pressured them to address unrelated issues, including migration, drug trafficking and defense. 

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Greer will recommend renewal if a resolution incorporating input from industry stakeholders can be achieved, the official said, noting stronger rules of origin for key industrial goods, enhanced collaboration on critical minerals, worker protections and dumping all as areas of possible concern.

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If the countries agree to a renewal, the accord would remain in force for another 16 years. But if that doesn’t happen, it could trigger annual reviews for a decade until the deal’s expiration in 2036. Any country could announce their intent to withdraw with six-months notice.

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Such a move would shake the foundations of one of the largest trading relationships in the world — the pact covers roughly $2 trillion in goods and services — and even the threat of a US departure would stoke uncertainty for investors and world leaders.