Trump Faces Escalation Conundrum as Iran War Flares Once Again

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(Bloomberg) — After another night of massive strikes on Iran, the US is once again facing a conundrum: escalate the conflict in retaliation for Iran’s attacks on US assets, or focus on restocking strained munitions and calming turmoil in global energy markets.

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Neither tack promises a quick end to the five-month war. President Donald Trump has been unable to force Iranian capitulation, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, or a meaningful return to diplomatic talks. And the US faces an uphill battle to reload resources as domestic support for the war wanes.

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The latest round of strikes on Wednesday night saw the US hit “dozens” of targets linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, US Central Command said, after Trump vowed to hit Iran hard. The administration didn’t say if the strikes presaged a renewed campaign against the government in Tehran.

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“I doubt that such massive strikes would undermine the IRGC’s continued ability to conduct sustained retaliatory strikes or to continue to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” said Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst on Iran and a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. “I also do not think that such massive strikes would force Tehran to cry uncle and commit to anything that is not in its national interests.”

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Developments this week have made it more difficult for Trump to extricate himself from a war that he’s promised won’t become a quagmire. A strike on two liquefied natural gas vessels Wednesday marked a first in Egyptian waters since the conflict began in late February. Yemen-based Houthis are menacing shipping in the Red Sea and Saudi forces helped the US attack Iran-backed militias in Iraq this week.

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Asked to comment about the administration’s strategy and its potential impact before Wednesday night’s strikes, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said that “only the Commander-in-Chief knows what he will do next.”

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As Trump considers a range of options for the US’s next move on Iran, he faces several warning signs that may push him away from major escalation, Bloomberg Economics analysts Jennifer Welch, Becca Wasser and Chris Kennedy wrote Thursday. 

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“Trump is pledging to stay in the fight and ‘finish off Iran,’” the analysts wrote. “The factors likely to shape his calculus, however, suggest his appetite for a return to sustained, high-intensity fighting is limited.”

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It’s also unclear whether any further strikes can lessen Iran’s chokehold on Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil, gas and other commodities that has become the focal point of the war.

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“I’m skeptical that further escalation has a high chance of achieving US objectives in Hormuz, which for better or worse has become the war’s new center of gravity,” said John Hannah, an analyst at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, a typically hawkish research organization. “Certainly not at a cost that Trump, the American people, or the world economy are prepared to pay.”