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(Bloomberg) — Donald Trump’s frenzied second term enters a crucial stretch in the coming weeks as the president juggles a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, a discordant party that he needs to pass his top legislative priority and a global economy on tenterhooks awaiting his next move on tariffs.
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Trump is up against a self-imposed July 4 target to pass his tax and spending bill, and he’s two weeks out from the July 9 expiration of the global tariff pause that concussed the economy in April when he first introduced a raft of levies.
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These deadlines come amid the tentative détente he brokered between Israel and Iran, days after an unprecedented military strike.
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The president is on a quick turnaround trip to the Hague for a NATO meeting, where European allies will strive to impress upon him the efficacy of the 76-year-old organization. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, scheduled to meet with Trump, will likely use the forum to lobby the US president to continue US support in the Russia-Ukraine war — a conflict that Trump has so far been unable to resolve.
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Trump’s team is moving at a rapid clip to remake trade, global alliances, elite universities and the rules for doing business in Washington. And, it’s all happening simultaneously, increasing the odds of potential missteps.
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Republican leadership depends on Trump to corral wayward members with tight margins to pass legislation and trade negotiators say that Trump is the final arbiter on any tariff deals. It’s a high stakes to-do list, even for a politician who fashions himself as the ultimate deal maker — “the closer” on negotiations across the White House’s wide remit.
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“That is the political cost of excessive presidential power. It is all on you, if Congress is absent, and you are making all of the decisions very visibly,” said Julian Zelizer, a professor of history at Princeton University. “His popularity on many issues keeps going down. While he is a forceful president, you can see him struggling and reversing course on both the tariffs and the cutting of the federal workforce. He keeps going back and forth.”
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Priority Issues
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast Monday’s Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement as a point of momentum that will translate into ticking off other priorities.
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“He’s done a peace deal. I think we will have a tax deal done by July 4 and then we can finish with the trade deals,” Bessent told reporters on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.
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Trump surprised — and disrupted — parts of his Make America Great Again, or MAGA, political base when he eschewed public warnings from advisers, including Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon, to avoid using US military force against Iran’s nuclear facilities. On Tuesday morning as he was departing the White House for the Netherlands, Trump flashed anger at Israel and Iran for still exchanging fire after a truce was to be in effect, displaying the fragility of the deal and the deeper entanglement he now has.
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