Trump alone can’t save the GOP from a midterm disaster

The one thing that Democrats, their media allies and Donald Trump all seem to agree about with a little less than eight weeks to go until the 2026 midterms?

That the president ought to play a starring role in them.

Trump addressed the crowd assembled for the Republican National Committee’s unconventional convention in Dallas on Wednesday night with photographs of himself — Trump signing autographs, Trump speaking at conventions past, Trump boarding Air Force One, Trump in a cowboy hat — lining the halls of the American Airlines Center.

Trump addressed the crowd Wednesday at the Republican National Committee convention in Dallas with a photograph of himself in a cowboy hat.

And why not? The logic behind this peculiar gathering is that if he can turn out his base for the midterms as if he were on the ballot, the widely-anticipated Blue Wave threatening to make a mess of his final two years in the White House might be killed in its cradle.

Trump has a unique ability to turn out otherwise low-propensity voters who would crawl over broken glass to support him.

From behind his office’s seal in Texas, Trump pushed all of his chips behind this theory in a performance reminiscent of his high-energy, always hilarious 2016 campaign.

“When I’m on the ticket, Republicans always do well!” he declared gleefully.

“So I’m asking you to pretend I’m on the ballot — I’m on the ballot! Just one more time.”

He punctuated an observation about the founders lighting “the immortal flame of American liberty” with a boast about winning Texas “three times in massive landslides.”

He asked Americans to let his administration “finish the job we began with the greatest two years in the history of the presidency.”

He posited that the country might not exist had he not prevailed in 2024.

He offered a grave warning about the “crazy, little, sick cloud” of communism hanging over America.

He poked fun at the looks, speaking style and wardrobe of his handpicked Lone Star State Senate candidate, Ken Paxton.

He credited John Cornyn, the incumbent Paxton successfully primaried, with helping secure the southern border.

He hailed the “Gulf of America” and “Lake America” before suggesting he might rename New Mexico… well, you guessed it.

And he broke the Fourth Wall more than a few times to let the audience in on a little secret: he was there on Wednesday “to have a little bit of fun.”

Donald Trump urged supporters to vote in the midterms “as if he were on the ballot.” JIM LO SCALZO/EPA/Shutterstock

It was vintage Trump, and the act is both familiar and beloved; the MAGA faithful received his message rapturously.

But Democrats, too, hope that the results two months from now are a referendum on his administration.

To put things in perspective: Cook Political Report namesake Charlie Cook recently summed up the state of the race by observing that the president is “radioactive with independent voters,” and predicting that Democrats will “do better than they have in generations.”

Politico’s Dasha Burns piled on Wednesday morning, hours before Trump was set to take the stage, by reporting that one Republican lobbyist had described the “vibes” in Dallas as “very bad.”

“Dems are salivating,” fretted the pessimist. “Our people are debating Israel. Or melting down about this or that. No one is motivated to vote. Only the DSA rise is what’s keeping us in the game.”

No such despair was detectable as Trump delivered his remarks, which functioned largely as a recitation of his accomplishments — both objective and dubious.

But the sunny state of affairs he described is not the one recognized by a majority of voters, who continue to express a deep-seated dissatisfaction with the economy.

They resented being told Bidenomics was working, and they resent being told all is well now.

So while the president is right about the need to turn out every last one of his followers if the GOP is to avoid a wipeout this fall, anyone laboring under the misimpression that that’s sufficient as well as necessary is in for a rude awakening.

Because Democrats, too, are right that if the election is about Trump and Trump alone, they’re poised for a resounding victory.

Besides promising to reward every American with a $5,000 dividend if Republicans hold on to the House in a thinly-disguised bribe, the president offered little in the way of a positive, forward-looking agenda for the next two years.

In fact, almost no one did all day long in Dallas.

With an unhappy electorate preparing to head to the polls, that dog just won’t hunt.

To win, Republicans must tell a story about not just the past, but the future.

Because the thing about playing the hits over and over again is that, after a while, they just don’t hit as hard.