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WASHINGTON — President Trump will try to reverse bleak polling and propel toward victory at-risk Republican majorities in Congress Tuesday with his State of the Union address — as the presence of Supreme Court justices and possible hecklers threaten to throw him off-script.
“It’s going to be a long speech, because we have so much to talk about,” Trump told reporters Monday of what will be his sixth annual address to Congress — after speaking for 1 hour and 39 minutes last year.
“We have a country that’s now doing well. We have the greatest economy we’ve ever had,” he said, previewing his emphasis on cost-of-living issues.
Trump is expected to recite positive news from his first year back in office, including lower inflation, more affordable rent and mortgage costs, record-high stock values and generous new tax refunds for seniors, car-buyers and people who earn overtime and tips.
He’s also likely to tout feats such as brokering a peace deal in Gaza, ending the migrant crisis on the southern border, capturing Venezuela’s dictator Nicolas Maduro and flattening Iranian nuclear sites.
But the combative chief executive will speak to a tense room with Supreme Court justices expected in the front row just four days after they struck down his “reciprocal” and fentanyl tariffs — casting pending trade deals into doubt and likely forcing the Treasury to return $175 billion.
Trump could hardly contain his fury on Friday, ripping three Democrat-nominated justices as a “disgrace to our nation” and saying two of his own nominees who voted against him were an embarrassment to their families and “very unpatriotic and disloyal to our Constitution.”
There’s intense buzz in Washington, meanwhile, about the possibility that Democrats will heckle him — particularly over his past relationship with Jeffrey Epstein and his administration’s congressionally mandated release of files on the notorious sex-trafficker’s case.
Trump says he broke off relations with Epstein in the early 2000s, but he is prone to erupting over the topic — flashing his middle finger and shouting “f–k you” last month when a Michigan autoworker called him a “pedophile protector.”
A number of Democrats are skipping the speech, including Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), whom the Trump Justice Department has investigated for alleged mortgage fraud, though the chamber is not likely to have empty seats.
The State of the Union will feature the usual mix of inspiring guests — potentially including the victorious US men’s hockey team fresh off the Winter Olympics — and standard political spin before an unusually large national television audience, recorded at 36.6 million last year.
Although news coverage in the runup will focus on leaked excerpts and quirky factoids — such as the selection of the Cabinet member who will serve as the “designated survivor” — the aftermath will be glued on the ramifications of the president’s performance.
‘Affordability and the economy’
The conventional wisdom going into the address is that Trump should stay disciplined in communicating to the public that he is working to address their concerns about affordability issues.
“Republicans want the president and the White House to focus more on affordability and the economy,” a GOP congressional official told The Post.
“Republicans like policy-wise what Trump is doing. They just want him to be focused more on an economic message.”
A Republican campaign source working on midterm races urged Trump to keep it simple and avoid repeating claims that “affordability” is a Democratic hoax or saying he has already “won” on the economy.
Trump “needs to focus on selling his accomplishments and talk about what Republicans have done for affordability,” the campaign source said.
“I don’t think he has to get too creative here. And don’t focus on SCOTUS too much with tariffs — that’s about it.”
Another GOP consultant involved in midterm races said: “The number one thing the president could do at the State of the Union that would benefit GOP candidates across the country is make clear that his focus moving forward isn’t on foreign policy, but instead on fixing the domestic economy, raising wages and creating jobs.”
“The perception that the Trump administration isn’t focused on the economy here at home because they’re too focused on foreign countries is a real drag on candidates in swing districts across the nation,” the operative said.
Although Trump has plans to campaign as if he’s personally on the ballot this fall, he’s facing the worst approval ratings of his term — with 55.8% of voters saying they disapprove, according to the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, a jump of 11.3 points since he retook office.
The rising disapproval is driven by dramatic 19-point swings among both Latino voters and mid-career Americans who are 35-49 years old, according to a recent CNN poll.
As allies expressed alarm about Latinos bolting from his coalition, Trump moderated his immigration rhetoric last month after federal agents killed two anti-ICE activists in Minnesota — saying he told his team to “lighten up” and emphasizing he is focused on removing violent criminals.
“The 2024 election was focused on securing the border, crime, and the cost of living. On the first two issues, the president and Republicans have a remarkable record of success, which he needs to reclaim,” said Michigan Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe.
“What happened in Minneapolis has obliterated what otherwise would be a huge victory.”
“On the cost of living, there are some good developments; gas prices are the lowest in years, the explosion in healthcare premiums Democrats promised hasn’t materialized, and the [Consumer Price Index inflation] rate has dropped to 2.4%, which is a good metric but hasn’t translated into something Americans feel at home,” Roe said.
“He should use this opportunity to trumpet the successes of his first year, and that includes foreign policy accomplishments, to show people we are making progress.”
The speech comes at a low point for morale among House Republicans, who hold a four-vote edge and are beset by internal tension, including over new revelations that Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) solicited “sexy” photos from an aide who later killed herself, prompting multiple GOP colleagues to demand his resignation on Monday.
“I think most [House Republicans] are just trying to survive the slim majority,” said a source close to lawmakers, saying there are “not good vibes right now.”
Supremes, hecklers threaten to steal show
Although his supporters want him to stick to policy, Trump cut his path in politics with free-wheeling attacks on his enemies and two of the most-watched aspects will be his treatment of Supreme Court justices and Democrats who interrupt.
Trump will mount the dais after passing Supreme Court justices and there’s anticipation of possible heckling after he begins talking.
Just a decade ago, interrupting the president was considered a shocking breach of decorum, but it’s now common behavior, making Republicans nervous and Democrats giddy.
“Donald Trump will reduce a high-stakes international speech into a cheap Atlantic City lounge act, playing to radical partisan diehards while the rest of the world cringes,” predicted Robert Zimmerman, a Democratic National Committeeman from New York.
“It will be less commander-in-chief, more Real Housewife Teresa Giudice meltdown.”
Last year, Trump didn’t take the bait when Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) repeatedly interrupted him, waving his cane and bellowing that he had “no mandate.” Green was ejected for his vague outburst.
Whether Trump can resist a more emotive and pointed interjection is unclear.
“Knowing that Trump is actively beefing with most of the Supreme Court and that they will be front row is going to be fun to watch!” said a Biden White House official.
The Democrat recalled enjoying “lots of booze and pizza” at the White House while watching Biden’s performances — including heckling by lawmakers and guests in 2024, 2023 and 2022. Biden chose to engage with his critics in some instances.
“The speech ultimately depended on the energy in the room and what people decided to stand and clap for. And Biden [was] always advised not to engage with hecklers, but that’s honestly when he’s at his best.”
The Biden aide said Trump, however, can’t win politically if he engages with heckling about the Epstein case and “he should ignore it, which I think is impossible for him to do.”
A Republican strategist who has been skeptical of Trump said that the term-limited commander in chief is in an already difficult spot with polling and the looming lapse of his own power.
“This State of the Union is almost certainly the beginning of the end of his presidency — the start of his lame duck status,” the GOP adviser said.
“His polling numbers are awful, the redistricting war that he initiated has blown up in his face [and] he’s picked yet another unnecessary fight with the Supreme Court,” the Republican skeptic said.
“It looks like he’s about to start a war with Iran that seems impossible to win without boots on the ground. Republicans are likely to lose a Senate seat in North Carolina and who knows what happens in Texas. Republicans are losing every special and off-year election to date pointing to a 2006 blowout and now, as we saw over the weekend, he’s endorsing primary challengers to incumbent Republicans in tough House seats.”
But Trump still commands by far the most attention of any political figure in America.
“GOP members of Congress who are up for reelection are really looking for Trump to say, ‘This is the plan to keep the country moving in the right direction and let’s keep doing it,’” said the congressional Republican source. “Essentially, stay on message for his road map for American prosperity.”
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