Tottenham vs. Villareal prediction: Odds, pick, best bet for Tuesday’s Champions League clash

Tottenham begins its Champions League campaign Tuesday with a showdown against Villarreal in North London.

Spurs have been impressive through their first four matches in the Premier League campaign, so it’s no surprise to see them sitting as an odds-on favorite against the Yellow Submarine.

The early returns on the Thomas Frank era have been splendid, but this is the Danish manager’s first foray into the Champions League.

Should we put Spurs on upset alert Tuesday?

Tottenham vs. Villarreal odds, prediction

The first order of business for Frank at Tottenham was to get the defense settled.

He’s certainly done that, as Spurs have allowed just one goal through four matches in the Premier League, and they’ve pitched clean sheets against Burnley, West Ham and, most notably, Manchester City.

Villarreal have eight goals through four matches in La Liga this season. AFP via Getty Images

Spurs are riding their luck a little bit, however, as their 4.9 expected goals allowed is well above their actual output of one goal conceded.

That defensive fortitude will be put to the test against Villarreal, who are tied with Real Madrid for most goals scored in La Liga through four matches.

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The underlying metrics support Villarreal’s offensive prowess, as the Yellow Submarine has generated the third-most expected goals in Spain’s top division this season.

The same can’t be said of Spurs, who are also getting some breaks offensively.

Tottenham has scored eight goals on 4.8 expected goals, which is a bit concerning if you are someone who got swept up by Spurs’ hot start under Frank.

Spurs also seem to be more comfortable playing a controlled, low-tempo style of soccer, which is the opposite of what we’ve seen from Villarreal this season.

A helter-skelter match could be a real issue for Tottenham.

Regression is coming for Spurs, which makes them a strong fade candidate as a favorite Tuesday.

The Play: Villarreal (+350, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.