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(Bloomberg) — Toronto’s housing market dropped to start the year, with both sales and prices dipping, amid deepening skepticism real estate is due for a rebound anytime soon.
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The number of homes that traded hands in Canada’s largest city fell 9.9% in January from the month before, data released Wednesday by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board showed. The benchmark price of a home fell 1.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month to C$941,200 (about $689,000), the data show. That was the biggest price decline in more than two years.
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And the Toronto real estate board’s annual forecasts, released at the same time as the January data, predicted the market would not see any recovery this year, with sales remaining about the same as last year’s totals, and average prices likely to fall further in the first half.
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“Affordability has improved, but uncertainty continues to weigh on long term decisions like homeownership,” Daniel Steinfeld, the Toronto real estate board president, said in a statement. “Greater economic clarity in the months ahead could restore confidence.”
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Though the Bank of Canada has spent the last two years cutting interest rates, it failed to spark a rebound in the country’s housing market as the eruption of a trade war with the US made many prospective buyers wary.
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With the central bank now signaling that it may be done lowering borrowing costs and no sign of those trade tensions easing, buyers have little incentive to return — putting more pressure on prices as the glut of listings that built up in recent years continues to linger.
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“With the cost of borrowing flattening out, affordability gains in 2026 will largely be seen on the pricing front, as buyers continue to benefit from negotiating power,” Jason Mercer, the real estate board’s chief information officer, said in a statement.
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