Toluca vs Club Necaxa Prediction and Betting Tips | July 12th 2025

Mexican Clausura champions Toluca kick off their 2025-26 Liga MX Apertura campaign when they play host to Club Necaxa on Saturday. Fernando Gago’s side have failed to win their last 10 games against the hosts and will journey to the Estadio Nemesio Díez looking to end this poor five-year run.

Having lost to Club America in the 2024-25 Apertura final, Toluca got their revenge in the second half of the season as they picked up a 2-0 victory over Club America in the Clausura playoff final.

Antonio Mohamed’s men finished three points clear at the top of the regular-season standings before edging out Monterrey and Tigres UANL in the playoffs to reach the final, where they brushed aside Club America over two legs.

Toluca head into the new campaign unbeaten in their 11 home games in 2025, picking up nine wins and two draws since the turn of the year.

Like the home side, Club Necaxa secured playoff football in the Clausura last season as they picked up 31 points from 17 games to finish fifth in the standings.

However, their playoff run was cut short in the quarter-finals as they were knocked out by Tigres UANL due to their lower finish in the table after both sides played out a 2-2 aggregate stalemate.

Necaxa are on a run of just one win from their last six matches while claiming three draws and losing twice, including a 3-2 defeat against Guadalajara in their only pre-season game last Sunday.

Toluca vs Club Necaxa Head-To-Head and Key Numbers

• Toluca hold a clear upper hand in the history of this fixture, having won 18 of the last 41 meetings between the two teams.
• Club Necaxa have picked up nine wins in that time, while the spoils have been shared on 14 occasions.
• Toluca are unbeaten in their last 10 games against Club Necaxa, claiming seven wins and three draws since a 3-2 defeat in October 2020.
• Gago’s men have lost just one of their most recent seven away games while picking up four wins and two draws since mid-February.

Toluca vs Club Necaxa Prediction

Having stormed to the Clausura title last term, Toluca will head into the new campaign with sky-high spirits as they look to keep the ball rolling. While Necaxa will take pride in last term’s performance, we see them struggling at the Estadio Nemesio Díez this weekend.

Prediction: Toluca 3-1 Club Necaxa

Toluca vs Club Necaxa Betting Tips

Tip 1: Result - Toluca to win

Tip 2: First to score - Toluca (The hosts have netted the opening goal in six of their last eight games against Necaxa)

Tip 3: Over 2.5 goals - Yes (There have also been three or more goals scored in four of the last five meetings between the two teams)

Edited by Peter P