Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Top 5, including Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, and more for July 29, 2025

Pitchers may control the tempo, but sluggers steal the spotlight, and today’s MLB slate is packed with big-bat potential. From rising stars like Jackson Chourio to veterans like Manny Machado and Matt Chapman, the power surge is very real heading into July 29.

Whether it’s momentum, matchups or ballpark factors, the following five hitters are in a prime position to launch one out. Let’s break down today’s top home run prop bets.

Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.

---

Today’s Five Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

#5 Cody Bellinger (+295)

Bellinger’s bat seems to have rediscovered its old power swing, lofty launch angles, rising exit velocities and a renewed patience at the plate. His matchup today against Joe Boyle of the Rays might offer another shot at leaving the yard. Boyle’s impressive 1.42 ERA is backed by elite velocity, but his control can waver.

Batting .281 with 19 homers and 58 RBIs, Bellinger has launched six home runs in his last 12 games, showcasing a strong blend of timing and barrel accuracy lately.

He’s seeing righties particularly well this month, and Boyle’s tendency to miss up in the zone plays right into Belli’s sweet spot. With the hot bat and plus matchup, he holds real value in the +295 range for a homer today.

---

#4 Bobby Witt Jr. (+340)

Witt is the dream of a modern power-speed kangaroo, electric in the air and a threat on the basepaths.

He’s lifting the ball much more often in July, showing true pull-side power that’s starting to manifest in the stat line. Facing Erick Fedde gives him the perfect opportunity to go deep.

With the way Witt’s driving the ball lately and Fedde’s home run issues, Witt offers sneaky power upside at +340 to go yard tonight.

---

#3 Jackson Chourio (+400)

Chourio may be young but carries one of the most thunderous swings in the MLB. His raw juice is undeniable, and his recent launch angle metrics can wow any coach’s heart, slashing .274 with 17 home runs, 67 RBIs and 70 runs scored.

He faces Colin Rea tonight, who’s been decent overall but has allowed bursts of power against right-handed hitters. Chourio’s ability to handle velocity and punish mistakes has shown all year, and with five homers in his last 13 games, he’s in a nice groove.

Rea’s 4.06 ERA is hiding some hard contact issues, and Chourio could capitalize if he gets a middle-in fastball. At +400, he’s a high-upside swing worth taking.

---

#2 Matt Chapman (+330)

Chapman has retrained his swing to include loft and lift, and it’s paying dividends. He launched two home runs on Sunday and followed it with a triple and an RBI against the Pirates yesterday.

He now draws Bailey Falter, a lefty who’s pitched to a solid 3.82 ERA but has been tagged by right-handed power bats throughout the season. Chapman’s OPS jumps significantly against southpaws, and with three extra-base hits in his last seven at-bats, he’s locked in.

If Falter misses location with his fastball or hangs a slider, Chapman’s quick bat could make him pay. He’s a sneaky value play today at +330.

---

#1 Manny Machado (+310)

When Machado’s bat is humming, you sit up and listen. He's riding a six-game multi-hit streak, where he’s gone an eye-popping 15-for-25 with four doubles, a homer and six RBIs.

That’s good for a .600 average and a 1.523 OPS during the stretch. Tonight, he faces Sean Manaea, a left-hander who’s been solid this year (2.19 ERA) but has struggled against right-handed hitters with power.

Machado owns a .302 season average, with 19 homers and thrives against southpaws. Given his scorching form and excellent splits, he’s a high-upside play to go deep at +310.

Edited by Bhargav