Tigers vs. Phillies: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - August 1, 2025

The Detroit Tigers (64-46), AL Central leaders, welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (61-47), who are second in the NL East, to their opening game of the series on Friday. The Tigers have won four games in a row but have not traveled well this season with a 28-25 record.

The Phillies are 33-19 at home. They rank as one of MLB's best slugging percentages at .412. Both teams enter this series with potent offenses.

Detroit's Riley Greene leads the team with extra-base hits at 50, and Philadelphia's Kyle Schwarber anchors their powerful lineup with 37 home runs. This series will be a tight fight as both teams hope to improve their playoff position.

Starting Pitchers

Jack Flaherty (Tigers - RHP)

2025 Stats: 6-10, 4.51 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 137 strikeouts in 109.2 innings

In his previous outing on July 27, Flaherty pitched six shutout innings against Toronto on five hits and a walk with seven strikeouts to earn the victory. This strong performance is an indicator of his potential to handle the Phillies' lineup even if this season has been challenging overall.

Ranger Suarez (Phillies - LHP)

2025 Numbers: 8-4, 2.59 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 90 K in 93.2 IP

Suarez continued his strong standing on July 26, earning the win against the Yankees by allowing one run on seven hits and one walk in 5.2 innings, with eight strikeouts. His consistent command and damage control make him a tough out at home.

Hot Hitters to Watch

Spencer Torkelson (Tigers)

Spencer Torkelson is Detroit's power hitter in 2025, batting .239 with 23 HRs, 63 RBIs, and 60 runs scored. While his average is not considerable, his ability to drive runs makes him the target in the Tigers' offense.

Bryce Harper (Phillies)

Bryce Harper has been a consistent offensive presence for Philadelphia this season, hitting .266 with 15 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases. His balanced mix of power and speed makes him an invaluable commodity in pressure situations.

Injury Report

Phillies:

• Max Kepler – Day-to-day (tricep)
• Joe Ross – 15-Day IL (back)
• Alec Bohm – 10-Day IL (ribcage)
• Aaron Nola – 60-Day IL (ankle)

Tigers:

• Paul Sewald – 60-Day IL (shoulder)
• Reese Olson – 60-Day IL (shoulder)
• Parker Meadows – 10-Day IL (quadricep)
• Sean Guenther – 60-Day IL (hip)
• Sawyer Gipson-Long – 15-Day IL (neck)
• Jackson Jobe – 60-Day IL (flexor)
• Jason Foley – 60-Day IL (shoulder)
• Alex Cobb – 60-Day IL (hip)
• Ty Madden – 60-Day IL (shoulder)
• Jose Urquidy – 60-Day IL (elbow)
• Alex Lange – 60-Day IL (lat)

Current Odds & Trends

Run Line:

• Tigers +1.5 (−169) / Phillies −1.5 (+138)

Total:

• Over 8 (−106) / Under 8 (−114)

Moneyline:

• Tigers +129 / Phillies −157

Final Score Prediction & Best Bets

Final Score Prediction: Phillies 4, Tigers 2

Best Bets:

1. Phillies Moneyline (−157) - Suarez has been dominant, and Philadelphia is in good lockstep at home. Detroit’s offense struggles with lefties.
2. Under 8 Runs (−114) - Suarez limits damage, and Flaherty’s upside is capped; this feels like a pitcher’s duel more than a slugfest.

Same-Game Parlay: Phillies ML + Under 8 - Combining home stability from Suarez with a tight overall scoring environment gives strong value.

Edited by Chaitanya Prakash