Tigers vs. Mariners prediction: Best bet, odds, pick for Game 2 of the ALDS

The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers needed extra innings to settle Game 1 of the American League Division Series. It was the first time since 2001 the Mariners hosted an ALDS series opener and like they did 24 years ago, Seattle lost Game 1, this time in 11 innings to a Tigers team that had the longest World Series odds entering the series.

Now the Mariners need to get a series split at home in Game 2 against one of the best pitchers in baseball before things shift to Detroit for a third game. No pressure.

Oddsmakers have the Tigers as -154 road favorites in this game with ace Tarik Skubal on the mound, while Luis Castillo will start for the Mariners, who are +130 underdogs. A pitchers’ duel is expected here with the total listed at 6 and the juice on the under (-122).

ALDS Game 2: Tigers vs. Mariners odds, prediction

This matchup is all about Skubal and whether he can keep the Mariners off the board long enough for his Tigers to strike. The data is certainly in his favor.

Skubal trailed MLB leader Garret Crochet in total strikeouts this season, but was the leader in strikeout percentage at 32.2%. He also led MLB in opponent swing percentage (54.5%) and had the second-lowest opponent contact percentage (69.6%) among qualified pitchers, per FanGraphs.

The Mariners had the ninth-highest swing percentage (48.1%), but the third-lowest contact percentage (74.6%) and had the seventh-highest K% (23.2%) in baseball this season.

If Skubal is on point, as he typically is, he should be able to get Seattle to miss consistently. The big question is how many innings will the Tigers try to squeeze out of their ace. He threw a season-high 107 pitches to start the postseason, which set the tone for how the Tigers are expected to use him in his starts.

After Saturday’s extra-inning game it’s even more likely that the potential Cy Young winner will need to go deep. The Tigers used seven arms out of their bullpen in Game 1, including three of their key relievers Tyler Holton, Kyle Finnegan, and Will Vest, who pitched two innings.

The Tigers having fewer reliable bullpen arms plays to our advantage when looking at Skubal’s player props. At most books, the over/under on his strikeout prop is 8.5 and the odds on him to get at least 10 strikeouts is plus money.

Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers winds up to throw a pitch. Getty Images

Skubal had 24 games during the regular season where he pitched six or more innings. In 12 of those games, he notched nine or more strikeouts and in 10 of those games he reached double-digit Ks.

Very few pitchers come into a game with the expectations that Skubal has, but I’m buying the hype.

We already saw him fan 14 batters on the road against Cleveland in the wild-card round. We should see another dominant pitching performance from him with the Tigers in position to head home with a 2-0 series lead against the Mariners.

I think there’s value on betting him to get over his 8.5 line at -130, but I’m also putting a small bet on Skubal to strike out 10 or more at +150.

The Pick: Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-130, FanDuel), Over 10+ Strikeouts (+150, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.