Thunder vs. Pacers prediction: NBA Finals Game 6 odds, pick Thursday

Game 6 of the NBA Finals is up in the air as Tyrese Haliburton’s status remains a mystery.

Haliburton has a strained calf, and the latest reports suggest that the Pacers are preparing as if he will be absent.

The betting line for Game 6 of the NBA Finals opened with the Thunder as 4.5-point favorites, but that price has ballooned to 6.5 with the news that Haliburton may not play.

It’s a tough spot for the Pacers if they do have to make do without their best player on Thursday, as they have a -2.3 net rating without Haliburton on the floor since Jan. 19 compared to a 5.8 rating with him on.

The Pacers have a net rating of -4.6 in this series, and that’s including Haliburton’s minutes against the Thunder.

Pascal Siakam will need to take on a much expanded offensive role on Thursday. NBAE via Getty Images

That doesn’t mean that the Pacers will immediately plummet to a -6.9 net rating if Haliburton misses out, but this is certainly a troubling trend.

Even if Haliburton does play, it’s reasonable to suspect a serious dip in productivity.

The Pacers will need to push the pace on the Thunder and hope that T.J. McConnell can give them productive minutes and make a few perimeter shots, so that they can stay afloat offensively.

Jalen Williams was on fire in Game 5. NBAE via Getty Images

With McConnell on the floor, the Pacers’ offensive net rating during the playoffs drops to 108.4, compared to 117.4 with him off the court.

A boost to his minute share could be hazardous to the Pacers’ plans of winning this game at home and potentially the series.

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I don’t see that happening here.

I backed the Thunder at home as 9.5-point favorites, and it should be no surprise that we’re going with the Thunder again in Game 6.

PICK: Thunder -6.5 (-105, Bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.