Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction, odds, schedule for 2025 NBA Playoffs second round series

Thunder vs. Nuggets has some hallmarks of a great series. The top two contenders for the MVP award will be facing off against each other. The Nuggets won a championship two years ago, and the Thunder are the hungry young team coming for that crown. Will there be a passing of the torch?

The Nuggets aren't nearly as dominant as two years ago, but they've always had a pretty good chance of winning any series because they had the clear best guy on the floor in Nikola Jokic. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the only player in the league who has a case to be as good or better.

Each star is going to make some amazing plays, which will make this series must-watch.

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Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction

If the Nuggets were facing any of the other Western Conference teams left in the playoffs, then they would have a decent chance of winning that series. The Thunder have to be favored in this matchup though based on their 68 regular season wins to the Nuggets' 50. 

Those wins weren't a fluke. The Thunder put together a historically great defense that has been rivaled only by the Bill Russell era Celtics. They outscored opponents by an average of 12.9 points per game, setting a record for highest point differential in a season. 

The Nuggets have looked like a better team in the playoffs than they were in the regular season. Jokic is going to be Jokic, and Jamal Murray has continued his trend of raising his game in the postseason. 

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Murray is going to be the key for the Nuggets to have any chance in this series. The Thunder have so many premier defenders to throw at him in order to slow him down. Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso are going to take turns making Murray's life absolutely miserable. If he does get past those three elite on-ball stoppers, then the Thunder's backline duo of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein are both elite rim protectors. 

The Nuggets are also coming into this battle with a key injury. Michael Porter Jr.'s shoulder doesn't look right. He's been a disaster every time he's put the ball on the floor, and he's disappeared at times. Denver needs him to be at his best. 

This Thunder team is just too deep and has too many ways to win. SGA is going to carve a mediocre Nuggets defense up and that suffocating defense will do the rest. 

Prediction: Thunder in 6

MORE: SN Player of the Year: Why Nikola Jokic gets our award over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Thunder vs. Nuggets betting odds

This section will be updated once odds are released.

Thunder vs. Nuggets regular season series

The Thunder and Nuggets split their season series 2-2. 

• Oct. 24, 2024: Thunder 102, Nuggets 87
• Nov. 6, 2024: Nuggets 124, Thunder 122
• March 9, 2025: Thunder 127, Nuggets 103
• March 10, 2025: Nuggets 140, Thunder 127

There have been some great games between these two teams. They opened their seasons against each other, and Chet Holmgren dominated that game with 25 points, 14 rebounds, five assists, and four blocks. 

The next game was much closer. The Nuggets handed the Thunder their first loss of the season, snapping their seven-game win streak behind 29 points from Russell Westbrook. Peyton Watson had a huge game-saving block down the stretch. 

The teams then played a back-to-back in Oklahoma City, splitting those games. The Thunder looked dominant in the first one, with SGA dropping 40 points in a 24-point win. Jokic responded the next night, leading the Nuggets to a 13-point win with 35 points, 18 rebounds, and eight assists.

MORE: Dame Lillard's injury could mean end of Giannis in Milwaukee

Thunder vs. Nuggets key storylines

Can the Thunder contain Nikola Jokic?

Nobody is stopping Jokic. But the Thunder have some personnel that might be able to give him trouble. 

Jokic infamously suggested Holmgren needed to get a little fatter last season. Holmgren hasn't taken that advice yet. He is giving up a definite strength advantage to Jokic, but has guarded him surprisingly well. In their first matchup, Jokic was just 1-of-5 on post up possessions and was blocked by Holmgren on the defining play of the Thunder's win. 

Holmgren has held Jokic to just a 42.7 true shooting percentage, well below Jokic's 66.3 percent during the regular season. Jokic has fared much better against Isaiah Hartenstein, posting a 71.7 true shooting percentage against his former Nuggets teammate. 

Hartenstein is a great defender, and he should get the primary matchup on Jokic despite his worse success. That will allow Holmgren to play more of a roamer role, which is the strategy that has worked the best against the Nuggets in the past. He's the better shot blocker of the two and can protect the rim while staying on Aaron Gordon. 

Which version of Russell Westbrook do the Nuggets get?

Westbrook has been up and down throughout the past few years. When he's on, he can win them a game. When he's off, he can chuck them out of contention and make crazy decisions with the ball. 

The Nuggets will have to count on Westbrook because there aren't many other players on the bench that interim coach David Adelman trusts. Julian Strawther had some great defensive performances in the past against Oklahoma City but hasn't played in these playoffs due to a lack of offensive polish.

Do the Nuggets have anyone to guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?

The Nuggets' defense has not been their strong suit this season. They ranked just 21st on that end of the floor during the regular season. Jokic isn't a good paint protector, and the team doesn't have any stopper point-of-attack defenders. 

That is a real issue against this Thunder team that was No. 2 in the league in drives per game during the regular season. Gilgeous-Alexander uses his slithery game to get to the rim at will. That is going to continue to happen in this series. He averaged 30.3 points and 6.5 assists per game during their regular season matchups.

Gilgeous-Alexander didn't have an outstanding first-round performance against the Grizzlies, missing shots that he normally makes. The Thunder didn't need him to carry them through that round. They will this time around.

Thunder vs. Nuggets schedule

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