This TSX stock is up 43% in April and price target hikes are rolling as analyst calls out ‘unwarranted’ discount to peers

A pedestrian walks past Toronto Stock Exchange signage in Toronto’s Financial District. Photo by Peter J. Thompson/National Post files

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How investors can prepare for a weaker U.S. dollar, why these Canadian utilities are looking good to Raymond James and more from The Week in Stocks. 

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Stock of the week: TFI International Inc.

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Shares of Quebec-based TFI International Inc. (TFII:TSX) are up 43 per cent since late March, and price target hikes are rolling in from Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and TD Cowen, among others, after the transport company beat analyst earnings estimates and issued second-quarter guidance on April 27 that surpassed expectations. TD Cowen analyst Jason Seidl hiked his target to $209 from $177. Shares closed Friday at $193.46. The company boasts a strong balance sheet and “continues to emphasize … returning excess free cash flow to shareholders,” he said in a note on April 28, adding that the share’s current discount to peers is “unwarranted.” CIBC Capital Markets analyst Kevin Chiang also hiked his TFI price target to $221 from $185 on the earnings and guidance beats. “The key takeaway from TFII’s (first-quarter) results and earnings call was that it saw strong momentum exiting the quarter,” he said, adding that shipment volumes accelerated in March and continued in April. Revenue per truck was up year over year in the first quarter, though that excluded a fuel surcharge. The stock’s meteoric rise over the past month or so represents a sharp turnaround from a year ago when investors abruptly sold it off in late February 2025 on news the company planned to move its headquarters to the United States, a decision it quickly reversed. Since then, its shares are up 85 per cent. TFI has a 12-month price target of $207.75 based on the calls of 18 analysts, according to Bloomberg.

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Keeping score

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Why GFL Environmental deserves better from investors, TD Cowen says

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Markets gave a thumbs down to GFL Environmental Inc.‘s (GFL:TSX) purchase of Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. (SES:TSX), driving shares down about 13 per cent. But sentiment could be shifting. TD Cowen analyst James Schumm said he was “warming up” to the deal. “Critical and difficult-to-replace disposal assets deserve to trade at premium valuations and we think GFL is paying an attractive price despite commodity risk,” he said in a note on May 1. He said the stock is being “unduly punished,” with valuations slumping to near all-time lows. He reiterated his buy rating on GFL and price target of $90. Shares closed Friday at $52.36. GFL has a 12-month price target of $72.35 based on 19 analyst calls, according to Bloomberg.

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Rosenberg Research on preparing for a weaker U.S. dollar

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Investors seeking shelter from the U.S.-Israel-led war on Iran have fled to the safe haven of the greenback. But in a post-war world, the U.S. dollar is expected to weaken due to worries over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence, elevated government deficits and possibly narrowing interest rate differentials, David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research & Associates, Inc., said in a note on April 24. The currency’s impending weakness opens the door for gold and international assets such as emerging market bonds. “The resumption of the dollar’s downtrend reinforces our bullish view on these two asset classes, as their structural trends are set to normalize post-conflict,” he said. Gold gained 22 per cent prior to the start of the war on Feb. 28, though year-to-date bullion is now up about six per cent. Nonetheless, Rosenberg said the fundamentals that drove the price of the precious metal up 65 per cent in 2025 are still in place and that the recent pullback has more to do with “speculative outflows.” The World Gold Council this week said central banks took the opportunity to load up on gold in the first quarter on the price pullback. Rosenberg is counting on a slumping U.S. dollar to boost total returns on emerging market bonds because it will shrink the “local currency debt burden.” He said other international equities excluding Japan will benefit in a weaker U.S. dollar environment, as will commodities such as uranium and copper.

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Why utilities are looking good to Raymond James

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The utility stocks that Raymond James Financial Inc. covers did well in the first quarter and associate analyst Theo Genzebu thinks the pieces are in place for shares of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN:TSX), Emera Inc. (EMA:TSX), Fortis Inc. (FTS:TSX) and Hydro One Ltd. (H:TSX) to continue performing well after they collectively pocketed gains of approximately five per cent and six per cent in the first quarter and year to date, respectively. “We believe that the utilities’ share price performance within our coverage continues to hold up well versus other rate-sensitive/cyclical names during this inflationary environment,” he said in a note on April 28. The power needs of artificial intelligence data centres drove shares last quarter and will continue to do so this year, he said, adding that investors should look at the speed at which utilities can roll out their capital investments while maintaining affordability for rate payers. Genzebu has become increasingly constructive on Algonquin, thinks the recent share pullback was “overdone” and maintained his price target of $7.25. Shares of Algonquin closed Friday at $8.58. The consensus 12-month price target for the company is $9.30 based on 11 analyst calls, according to Bloomberg. He hiked his price target on the other three utilities as well: Emera to $75.25 from $74.50, with shares closing Friday at $72.10; Fortis to $80.50 from $78.50, with shares closing Friday at $77.74; and Hydro One to $58 from $57, with shares closing Friday at $58.41. The utilities all pay a dividend yield, ranging from 2.3 per cent at Hydro One to a high of 4.1 per cent at Algonquin and Emera. Fortis shares have a dividend yield of 3.3 per cent.