'This is about Drew Allar': Josh Pate explains why Penn State can’t afford to lose to Oregon

Penn State and Oregon will meet in a top-10 showdown in Week 5, a rematch of last year’s Big Ten title game that ended with the Ducks on top.

The stakes feel especially heavy for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions. Franklin’s record against top-10 opponents sits at just 4-20 in 12 years, and a loss here would again raise questions about Penn State’s ability to break through in big moments.

College football analyst Josh Pate used his Tuesday show to highlight quarterback Drew Allar as the central figure. Penn State’s ground game is strong, but Pate warned that the Lions’ season hinges on whether Allar can stretch the field.

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Drew Allar under pressure as Penn State eyes redemption

Allar's performance could determine not only the outcome against Oregon but Penn State’s trajectory as a playoff contender.

“All the keys everyone’s gonna point out, this is about Drew Allar,” Pate said. “That’s who this game’s about. There is a world where Penn State runs for 200 and they still lose and I know that because I watched them run for 297 against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship game last year and guess what They still lost.”

Through three games, Allar has thrown for 626 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. But Pate noted his deep passing struggles, pointing out he is just 2-for-9 on throws beyond 20 yards and that Penn State ranks 95th nationally in explosive passes.

Meanwhile, Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has impressed with 962 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception, completing nearly 75 percent of his throws.

Ultimately, Pate leaned toward Penn State. He cited the Nittany Lions’ defense, the home crowd, and the urgency of the moment.

“Penn State’s just gotta win this game,” he said. “They’ve just got to win the game. You could not write this thing with any more edge tilted toward Penn State than there is.”

The Ducks already have 31 plays of 20-plus yards, though Pate reminded viewers that Moore has not yet faced the top-ranked pressure defense in the country.