The Stakes Have Never Been Higher for Drake 

After running laps around his competition for 15 years when it comes to the charts, Drake’s legacy as rap’s most accomplished hitmaker is solidified. His name will forever be etched into the rap history books, even before last summer’s (almost) Battle of the Big 3 put a blemish on his stellar career and changed how a lot of fans view his standing as one of the game’s premiere rappers. And yet the expectations remain lofty when it comes to his upcoming ninth solo album. 

Iceman feels just as monumental as his sophomore effort Take Care was in 2011 — after his 2010 official debut LP Thank Me Later, while decent, failed to meet the bar that he set for himself with 2009 breakthrough mixtape So Far Gone. It doesn’t help that he’s been ramping up the Iceman hype for a year and some change now, via various Iceman references on his Instagram accounts, three livestreams, “iced-out” seats at Toronto Raptors home games and an ice sculpture he was forced to take down because it was becoming a public nuisance. 

Now, after all that, Iceman will finally see the light of day on May 15. Fans and critics alike expect nothing short of a bona fide classic — or a “Luther” type hit that will rule the charts for more than a couple weeks as he’s been known to do before this whole Big 3 debacle popped off (or at least another “Nokia” to threaten to rule the summer). If Jigga is the Mike Jordan of Recordin’ and Kenny is Compton’s Prince, then Drake is most certainly the Mike Jackson of Rap when it comes to hitmaking. Even the biggest Drake hater would have to concede that fact, being that he’s currently tied with the King of Pop for most No. 1s for a male solo artist in history — and with Michael’s music once again swarming the chart, some may take it as a sign that Drake SZN is once again upon us.

However, he hasn’t put out a universally lauded project since 2017’s More Life, and has put out mostly unimpressive music since losing the battle to Kendrick Lamar in 2024 — which has included a slew of singles, loosies and a joint album with fellow OVO artist and collaborator PARTYNEXTDOOR. As an outside observer, it feels like he’s been trying to find his footing post-feud, as he’s mostly taken a hit in the court of public opinion and on the charts over his decision to file suit against his label UMG over the impact “Not Like Us” has had on his psyche. While he and PND managed to land at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 and had songs from $ome $exy $ongs 4 U hang around the top 40, none of those records reached No. 1 — as he’s long been accustomed to doing — and his “comeback” single, the Iceman-leading “What Did I Miss?” also topped out at No. 2 on the Hot 100. 

He’s not the first rapper to struggle at getting over a loss. Jay-Z continued to shoot at Nas on the Blueprint 2 a year after “Ether” shook up the game. However, Jigga’s defeat didn’t feel as monumental; his cultural cachet remained the same and he released records like The Black Album, American Gangster, and Watch the Throne (considered classic by some), continued to make hits, and while his ego may’ve been bruised, his overall status surpassed his peers. Meanwhile, Drake and his fans have been forced to reckon with the constant memeing and mood-boarding on IG — while he continues to take shots at Dot (who has since moved on with his life) and align himself with controversial streamers like Adin Ross and Akademiks — and, of course, the UMG lawsuit.

You can throw the stats, the numbers and the record sales out the window when it comes to cultural cachet, even as hip-hop has been America’s leading pop culture export for some time now. Chart impact and dominance is low on the totem pole when it comes to opinions of real rap fans, especially those of a certain age and background. The Canadian rapper has always wanted to be accepted by hip-hop culture at large — and has been, for the most part — but his pre-rap teen TV stardom has always been a point of contention for some, especially as he started to drift away from R&B-rap hitmaker to insulated, paranoid would-be crime boss the more successful he became. 

There’s an interesting quote from Lil Wayne during an appearance on an old ESPN podcast back in 2015 where he talks of advising the Toronto rapper to stay in his lane and to be careful about venturing too deep into street rap waters. “I was the one to tell him, don’t change anything,” he told Be Honest host Cari Champion. “Don’t think ‘cause you’re coming over here by me you gotta start rapping ‘bout the things I rap about. Don’t do none of that. Please rap about your little TV show, whatever you wanna rap about, rap about girls, do that. That’s what you’re good at. It’s only natural for you to come over and just think, if I’m wit Wayne, I’m gonna rock like Wayne. I rap about what I rap about. That was one of the main things I had to tell him from jump. Don’t change anything. Don’t start singing about killing nobody, don’t start singing about the streets. Keep it Canadian, man.”

Drake has long neglected to heed to that advice, and in turn alienated a sect of rap fans who appreciated his penchant to make palatable hits that refuse to believe the tough talk. For example, on songs like “Diplomatic Immunity” and “Omertá,” there’s talk of ballistic reports on the former and a line where he raps, “testing me gon’ have my n—as testing machinery,” on the latter. Then there’s also the alleged Instagram DMs that Ebro Darden shared on the first episode of The Ebro, Laura, & Rosenberg Show after they were fired from their radio morning show gig at New York City’s Hot 97 where he told Darden, “Die slower p—y” and “We got some s—t for u.” And some fans scratched their heads when he dropped the “What Did I Miss?” video where he’s watching himself rapping as a bunch of automatic weapons are sprawled on the ground, clearly taking inspiration from Gabriele Galimberti’s book The Ameriguns. He got beat fair and square, but apparently hasn’t learned his lesson or has accepted defeat. He has to come to grips that Kendrick is at the top of the mountain and now it’s time for him to climb back up.

My take? I don’t think he cares about being accepted by every single rap fan anymore; that remains clear by who he’s been associating himself with. It’s true that people won’t care if the music is undeniable, but for that, we’re going to have to chill out and see if he can swing back the narrative in his favor beyond an impressive first-week streaming total, which even in his diminished state, Drake could probably still put up in his sleep. This project has to be bulletproof in quality and needs to impress his harshest critics. If it’s not and Iceman is as bloated and underwhelming as some of his last couple offerings? Well, he had a historic run, and all runs have to come to an end. Many fans won’t take him seriously as a contender anymore, no matter how many chart entries he continues to rack up.

For Drake and Iceman, the stakes is high.