Last week I wrote about how there had been a clear divide between ranked and unranked teams, both from an overall winning percentage viewpoint as well as against the spread. It's not the only aspect of the 2026 season that has been an outlier to this point from a gambling perspective.
Homefield advantage is realer than ever before.
So far this season, in games between FBS opponents, the home team is a remarkable 173-145-5 ATS. That's a 54.4% cover rate. For perspective, assuming the standard (-110) juice, if you'd just blindly bet every home team in FBS games this season, you'd be up 13.5 units this season. That's not a typical result!
Going back to the 2014 season, the beginning of the CFP era, that 54.4% win rate is the highest by a wide margin. The next closest season was 2021. It finished at 51.6%. What's a bit more interesting is that this season continues something of a trend.
From 2014 to 2023, that 2021 season was the only time home teams finished above 50% ATS on the season. In 2024, they won 50.9% of the time. In 2025, they followed it up at 51.3%. The 2024 season marked the start of our new superconference era and was the first season when NIL and the transfer portal really kicked in.
That last note is what makes what I'm about to bring up slightly more interesting. In games between G5/6 schools, the home team is covering 57.3% of the time this year. It was 53.4% last season and 53.9% in 2024.
Perhaps one of the byproducts of our new NIL era is that, while the richer schools of the Power Four are able to draw in the top talent, often plundering the best players from the Group of Five/Six every portal season, home-field advantage has become far more important among G5/6 schools who are playing on a more even playing field talent-wise.
Or it's all just a coincidence. That's the fun thing about all of it. We don't really know anything. Maybe that's why I have such a horrible record in this column so far in 2026. Anyway, while I ponder whether I should start blindly picking every Group of Six home team for the rest of the year if this week goes poorly, you read this week's picks and decide what you want to do with them.
Games of the Week
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana: It's quite possibly the biggest game of the weekend, and one of the most difficult for me to figure out. Clearly, to this point, Ohio State has played the more difficult schedule. The Buckeyes have had two difficult road games against Texas and Iowa, with one going far better than the other. That said, Ohio State led Texas for all but the final eight seconds of the game, and as time has passed, I can't help but wonder if Texas won it more than Ohio State blew it.
Neither reflects all that well on the Buckeyes, but you have to wonder what they've learned from it.
Indiana hasn't faced a ranked opponent yet. You could argue Nebraska should've been ranked last week, and the Cornhuskers gave Indiana fits. They weren't the first to do so this season. Northwestern made things pretty uncomfortable for the Hoosiers earlier this year, too, and it's clear that this Indiana team isn't quite the same ruthless killing machine it was most of last year. But don't let that mislead you. It's still very good and has two gamebreakers at receiver in Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh.
And those two could be the difference here. Ohio State has Jeremiah Smith. He's the best receiver in the world right now, but Indiana may be able to slow him down. Not with coverage ability -- I'm not sure any team can cover him -- but with its pass rush. Indiana ranks ninth nationally in pressure rate and 10th in sack rate. If you can pressure Julian Sayin, you can stop Jeremiah Smith, and we saw Indiana put pressure on Sayin in the Big Ten Championship last season.
We also saw Ohio State harass the hell out of Fernando Mendoza, but that's the last time the Buckeyes' pass rush looked exceptional. This season Ohio State's defense ranks 95th nationally in pressure rate and 109th in sack rate. That dropoff is the primary reason the unit hasn't been nearly as effective as last season (though it's still good). Josh Hoover has cleaned up the mistakes that dogged him at TCU largely because Indiana has protected him, and he's gotten the ball out quickly. If Ohio State can't suddenly find a pass rush this weekend, I'm not sure things will change much. The Pick: Indiana +3.5 (-110) at Fanduel
No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 8 BYU: If you like to follow trends with your gambling, you've got no idea what to do with this game. Over the last three seasons, BYU is 23-9 ATS. That 71.9% cover rate is the best in the country. Well, Notre Dame is 23-11 ATS, and their cover rate of 67.6% ranks fourth. So maybe we're destined for a push if we can find a round number, but right now there's a 10.5-point spread everywhere you look. Good luck picking the right side; I'm avoiding it.
I'd rather look at a different kind of history. BYU fans feel perpetually slighted because their program has been excellent for a while but never gets the national respect they feel it deserves. The primary reason is how BYU performs in its biggest games. Last year the Cougars lost twice, both times to Texas Tech. They were outscored 63-14 in the two games, scoring one touchdown in each. The nation won't view you as an elite team until you beat, or at least compete with, another elite team. This week presents that chance, and while the Cougars may pull it off, I think there's only one path to victory.
They basically have to do what Oklahoma did to Texas last week. The Cougars have to turn this into a street fight. Their offense just has not shown up in these types of games. Going back to the 2024 season, BYU's offense has averaged 2.86 points per possession with a 47.2% success rate against unranked opponents. Against ranked teams, those numbers fall to 1.85 points and a 43.6% success rate. A full point per possession is steep.
So now they're facing one of the best defenses in the country, and they won't have RB LJ Martin. If Notre Dame is able to take away the run, I'm not confident BYU has a dangerous counterpunch. Yes, Bear Bachmeier has improved as a passer this season statistically, but it's a lot different having success when your arm is when defenses are struggling to stop your run game than when they aren't. We saw that when Texas Tech put the clamps on it twice last season, and I think the Irish do the same here. The Pick: BYU Team Total u17.5 (-130) at Fanduel
Lock of the Week
No. 11 Utah at Colorado: It's hard to put any faith in Colorado these days. The team has not performed well on the field, and it's leading to all sorts of distractions off it. Whether it's kicking players off the team following an embarrassing viral clip ahead of a 41-7 loss at Northwestern, or Coach Prime basically throwing his quarterbacks under the bus when asked what the team's problem is. The latest issue has been letting their playbook fall into the hands of Texas Tech before a 29-7 loss to the Red Raiders. Coach Prime downplayed the impact of that on the game, and I tend to agree with him.
The other team could tell Colorado what play it was running before each snap, and I'm not sure it'd make much of a difference.
This week Isaac Wilson will start for the Buffaloes at QB again, not that I understand why. Julian Lewis hasn't been great, but he's performed better than Wilson has. The decision makes my decision far easier. Give me the Utes, but only in the first half. With Utah having Houston looming next week, I don't want to risk the Utes letting up on the gas in the second half.
Besides, if you haven't noticed, Utah's made a habit of blowing the doors off teams out of the gate. In four games against FBS opponents, the Utes have outscored teams 100-23 in the first half. That's an average lead of 19.25 points at halftime. That's the fourth-best first-half margin in the country, behind only Notre Dame, Ohio State and Miami. I expect the Utes to grab control of this one quickly. The Pick: Utah 1H -9.5 (-108) at DraftKings
Under of the Week
Washington at Purdue (Friday): Is there a hotter team in the country than the Purdue Boilermakers? Purdue has won two straight Big Ten games after going like a quarter century without winning one. OK, so maybe it wasn't that long, but it had been a while! The biggest reason for the turnaround seems to be that Purdue learned how to play defense.
I don't know what, if any, schematic changes the team has made, but the results have been fantastic. In three losses to Wake Forest, UCLA and Indiana, Purdue's defense had a success rate of 47.7% and allowed 4.13 points per possession. In the wins over Illinois and Minnesota, their success rate has skyrocketed to 62.3%, and they've allowed only 1.50 points per possession. Obviously, Indiana and UCLA have had better seasons than either, but Illinois' offense has been good in every game this season except the Purdue game.
Now the Boilermakers are hosting Washington on a short week. The Huskies' offense has struggled all year and could be without starting QB Demond Williams. It remains to be seen whether that's a bad thing, as Williams has not played well this season, but I don't think a QB change will fix Washington's offense entirely, particularly on a short week when the Huskies have to travel. Since joining the Big Ten, Washington has played seven conference games east of the Rockies. It is 1-6 in those games and averaging only 14 points per game. The Pick: Under 51.5 (-104) at Fanduel
Team Total of the Week
Washington State at Oregon State: I remember thinking earlier this season when Houston and Texas Tech had trouble with Oregon State that the Big 12 could be in trouble. This was an Oregon State team that finished 2-10 in 2025, after all.
Well, it turns out Oregon State's just a juggernaut. The Beavers have been scoring touchdowns at a crazy rate thanks to the QB/WR combo of Braden Atkinson and Jesse LeGree. Since those opening two losses, the Beavers have averaged 51.7 points per game. They put up so many points on Colorado State that Jim Mora fired his defensive coordinator during the game.
This week, they face a Washington State team that's been decent on defense but horrific on offense. While I expect the Cougars will look to slow this game down, I don't think they're capable of doing so. The Pick: Oregon State Team Total o34.5 (-122) at Fanduel
Upset of the Week
Wisconsin at No. 12 UCLA: The following two things can be true: UCLA's win over Oregon last week was massive, and only winning by two points when the other team turns the ball over seven times is a bit concerning. It's even more concerning this week now that the Bruins won't have Nico Iamaleava at QB. I don't know a whole lot about Ty Dieffenbach, but I do know that the Bruins only asked him to throw the ball six times in relief of Nico. Now, there's a chance he won't start this week. It could be Madden Iamaleava.
Either way, UCLA's bread and butter is running the ball. That's what they're great at, and it's what they'll try to do again this week. My question is how effective the run game will be without the threat of Nico at QB. Wisconsin has an excellent defense. One that is capable of slowing down the run game and putting pressure on a QB in the passing game. If the Badgers can stymie this offense much the same way Oregon did last week, I think they can come home with a huge road win that sets them up well in the Big Ten. The Pick: Wisconsin (+122) at Fanduel
Games of the Week | 2-0 | 9-3 | 5.60 |
Lock of the Week | 0-1 | 2-4 | -2.48 |
| Upset of the Week | 0-1 | 1-5 | -3.60 |
Overall | 2-4 | 14-22 | -9.59 |
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