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A good barometer of an NBA Draft Class' depth is how close the Rookie of the Year race is. Plenty of names are in the mix to take home the award, but about five stand out. Among them, Cameron Boozer of the Memphis Grizzlies is the favorite to win the award, per ESPN's Summer Forecast. What edge does he have over Darryn Peterson of the Utah Jazz and AJ Dybantsa of the Washington Wizards? Let's break it down.
Grizzlies' Boozer edges out Dybantsa, Peterson for NBA ROTY race in ESPN's Summer Forecast
Heading into the 2026 NBA Draft, there was no clear order for who would land in the top five, but a short list of names was already guaranteed to do so. Those same players will now have to duke it out for the NBA ROTY race. Five names stand above the rest: Memphis Grizzlies' Cameron Boozer, Sacramento Kings' Darius Acuff Jr., Chicago Bulls' Caleb Wilson, Utah Jazz's Darryn Peterson, and Washington Wizards' AJ Dybantsa.
How do all of these NBA ROTY candidates stack up against each other? ESPN forecasted one slim favorite, with an ingrained edge that his team has and no other squad offers.
| Cameron Boozer | 61 points |
| Darryn Peterson | 56 points |
| AJ Dybantsa | 54 points |
| Caleb Wilson | 32 points |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 3 points |
Notably, the frontrunners are the same people who were drafted first, second, third, and fourth overall. Acuff Jr. is also the only one with the highest odds outside of the top five picks to land on the list.
Among all of them, why does Boozer have a five-point difference that sets him apart?
It all has to do with the Grizzlies and the minutes they can afford him so he can develop.
"These players all landed in situations that should be beneficial from an early usage and minutes standpoint, but it's Boozer who should have the biggest role of the three, with Memphis likely to orient its operation around him for the foreseeable future as it needs an offensive player who can shoulder a scoring load and connect teammates. On paper, he looks like the slight favorite," ESPN declared.
Boozer will be handed the keys to the Grizzlies, a luxury that his other NBA ROTY competitors will not be afforded. This is because Ja Morant left for the Portland Trail Blazers, and the Grizzlies are focusing on their young guys rather than being forced to compete.
Peterson, for instance, will likely be benched often if his performances don't pan out, making way for guys like Ace Bailey, Keyonte George, and Lauri Markkanen. The same goes with Dybantsa, who is pressured to perform immediately alongside Trae Young and Anthony Davis for a postseason spot in a cutthroat Eastern Conference.
Wilson might have the most leeway in development, which could threaten Boozer's NBA ROTY win. Even then, he cannot be as ball-dominant as he was back with the UNC Tar Heels. This is because guys like Norman Powell, Josh Giddey, Matas Buzelis, Patrick Williams, and Rob Dillingham have something to prove to the Bulls organization.
The Grizzlies immediately get to start Boozer at the power forward spot ahead of guys like Taylor Hendricks and GG Jackson. Other players on their roster also don't need any sort of heliocentrism to be effective. Boozer gets complemented well with the two-way prowess of teammates like Scotty Pippen Jr., Cedric Coward, Jerami Grant, and Zach Edey.
When all of these considerations are put into place, it's not hard to see why the Grizzlies will get their third NBA ROTY winner after Pau Gasol and Ja Morant. Will any unseen contender step up to usurp expectations and beat Boozer by the end of the year?
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