The ominous March Madness stat that should worry top-seeded Duke

The numbers sure are troubling for Duke.

The No. 1-seeded Blue Devils survived a scare from No. 16 Siena in their NCAA Tournament opener on Thursday, winning 71-65 after trailing by 11 at the half.

According to ESPN Insights, history isn’t exactly on their side if they plan to win their first men’s basketball title in over a decade.

Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer reacts in the first half during a first-round game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament against Siena. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Duke became just the eighth No. 1 seed to beat a No. 16 by six or fewer points, with three of the previous seven losing in the Round of 32 — and only Illinois’ 1989 squad going on to reach the Final Four.

That’s a lot of history to buck, but perhaps Thursday’s near-catastrophe will be a wake-up call ahead of Saturday’s matchup with No. 9 TCU after the Blue Devils became the first top-seeded team to trail a No. 16-seed by double-digits at the half.

Forward Maliq Brown told CBS Sports’ Tracy Wolfson at the half that the Blue Devils had mistakenly believed it would be a “cakewalk” against the Saints.

A furious second half kept them from joining Virginia’s 2018 team and the 2023 Purdue squad as the No. 1 seeds who fell to No. 16s.

“Toughest position I’ve ever been in in the tournament, no question about it,” Duke coach Jon Scheyer said. “These games are fragile.”

Consider the message sent, loud and clear.

“They outplayed us the entire game, until that last seven minutes maybe,” said guard Cayden Boozer. “Our season’s not guaranteed. No game is guaranteed here … If we don’t play Duke basketball, we’re going to get sent home.”