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If you’re on the lookout for a toddler-friendly take on mortgage rates, grab your juice box — this one’s as simple as it gets.
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At the risk of oversimplifying, the near-term path for rates essentially hinges on tariff chatter out of Washington, D.C. If the trade news is good, it’s bullish for bond yields and most mortgage rates. If the trade news is bad, it’s bearish for bond yields and most mortgage rates.
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Needless to say, other factors propel bond yields too — including inflation and employment headlines — but tariffs and trade are the biggest drivers at the moment. (For greenhorn mortgage shoppers, bond yields matter because they largely dictate fixed mortgage rates.)
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This week, we also got word from the U.S. Federal Reserve that stagflation risk has risen, that the U.S. economy is still “solid” and that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates.
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Such news also makes it more likely the Bank of Canada will hit the snooze button on rate changes, given our economic ties with the Americans. So far, however, the latest central-bank-speak has only modestly moved yields, and not budged mortgage rates at all.
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Meanwhile, on the national mortgage rate leaderboard, all the rates that people want (the three-year fixed, five-year fixed and variable) are stuck in a rut.
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Conversely, the terms that nobody brags about at dinner parties are on the run, including these weekly movers:
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- Two-year fixed (uninsured) — down 22 basis points to 4.57 per cent
- Four-year fixed (uninsured) — down seven basis points to 4.22 per cent
- One-year fixed (insured) — up 24 basis points to 4.59 per cent
- Two-year fixed (insured) — up five basis points to 3.99 per cent
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Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.
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For the best national insured and uninsured mortgage rates, updated daily, please visit our mortgage rate page here.
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