The 77,000 Voters Set to Decide the Next UK Prime Minister

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It also presents a huge dilemma for the prime minister: The government can’t afford to lose the by-election but equally Starmer — who on Thursday said that he would campaign for Burnham in Makerfield — can’t afford for his rival to win. “If you want Starmer out, you vote Burnham, not Reform,” says Ford. “Reform shore Starmer up.”

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Farage has said he will “throw the kitchen sink” at the election to keep punishing Starmer at the ballot box following his party’s triumph at the local elections.

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“The fate of two parties, and the trajectory of the rest of this Parliament, now rests in the hands of Makerfield voters,” Ford adds. “This is truly a by-election like no other.”

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On The Road to Wigan Pier 

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Labour has won the Makerfield seat at every national election since the constituency was created in 1983. Simons had a majority of just over 5,000 votes in 2024 but that hold over the area now looks much more fragile.

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Made up of parts of five towns, three villages and four other suburbs the constituency falls under the umbrella of Wigan Council. One of the towns, Ashton-in-Makerfield, even features in George Orwell’s 1937 book The Road to Wigan Pier, which chronicled the plight of the northern working classes during the depression. Just two weeks ago, Reform won 24 of the 25 Wigan council seats contested at local elections. Its by-election candidate is Robert Kenyon, a 41-year old local plumber and Army reservist who finished second to Simons at the 2024 general election with 32% of the ballots cast — Reform’s sixth-highest vote share in the country.

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“We need a Reform government to save this country,” Kenyon said in an election video released on Friday. “This by-election is going to play a massive part in that.”

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Early polling suggests Burnham’s personal popularity may be decisive. He won around two-thirds of the votes in each of his three mayoral election victories. A national poll by More in Common suggests that Labour’s seven-point deficit to Reform could translate into a three point lead with Burnham at the helm.

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“If he manages to win this,” political scientist John Curtice told Politico, “he will certainly be demonstrating his ability to win constituencies you would expect most Labour politicians to lose at the moment.”

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Some believe that winning a close fight would bolster Burnham’s case that he is the only Labour politician who has proved he can beat Reform. Privately, Labour figures in both the Starmer and Burnham camps told Bloomberg they expect him to win because of his local popularity, but they acknowledge it will not be a straightforward fight.

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“The evidence speaks for itself,” says Peter Bryce, a Makerfield constituent who works in regional economic development and plans to vote Burnham. Greater Manchester’s economy has been growing at twice the UK’s national rate, with large companies moving to the city, high student retention rates after graduation, and the regeneration of former industrial districts. Bryce credits Burnham for overseeing that growth. “He’s done a fantastic job.” 

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Burnham’s flagship policy of bringing buses back under public control — capping fares at £2 — is repeatedly cited by voters as evidence of delivery rather than rhetoric.

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“You’ve probably been around the town today and never seen as many yellow buses,” says Neil Barker, a former sports reporter at the Manchester Evening News. “You’ve got to take your hat off to him for the public services provided there.”

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Yet in a statement explaining his decision to stand in the by-election, Burnham said: “There is only so much that can be done from Greater Manchester. Much bigger change is needed at a national level if everyday life is to be made more affordable again.”

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Burnham has called for more public control of essential services like water, energy and gas companies, just as he did with Manchester’s buses. He also believes in greater devolution of powers from Westminster and electoral reform, and said he’d like to see the UK rejoin the European Union in his lifetime.

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At the start of the week, however, he was forced to clarify that he will not try to reverse Brexit — Makerfield voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU — saying the country would be stuck in “a permanent rut if we’re just constantly arguing.” He also ruled out changing the government’s limits on borrowing if he were to gain power, potentially limiting a more radical policy agenda.