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Texas Tech Red Raiders edge rusher David Bailey is the most interesting pass rusher in the 2026 class. He's also the most polarizing.
On Saturday, he'll visit the Utah Utes, making reservations for a date with the best tackle duo west of the Mississippi. It's the kind of high-profile matchup that leaps off the docket. Entering Week 4, there are no more ranked teams on Texas Tech's schedule. A College Football Playoff berth isn't a guarantee, and if the Red Raiders make an insignificant bowl game, Bailey may opt entirely.
Against No. 16 Utah, Bailey is staring down the biggest game of his career.
Bailey's profile could be changing
Bailey entered the season as a Day 2 prospect with a one-dimensional game. He might be the most natural pass rusher in the class. He might be the worst run defender, too.
At 6'3", 250 pounds, Bailey will always be fighting against his frame on early downs. Still, some of these types turn into Brian Burns; others are relegated to the realm of Azeez Ojulari.
Improving against the run will thus define his rise. I'm not convinced that growth is coming, although his senior season gives him that runway. If we take Pro Football Focus's run defense grade as a proxy, though, there is reason for optimism. He's fared well in three consecutive games against lesser competition, albeit in a small sample. Keeping that momentum rolling into Big 12 competition is critical.
MORE: NFL Draft Big Board 2026: Early-season top-40 prospects with Round 1 hopes
For now, Bailey remains a high-profile pass rusher who needs to be a safe bet for production to hear his name called in Round 1. He has to at least be playable on early downs while standing out in dropback situations. The pass-rushing tools are present: his bend and burst are elite, he has a strong feel for technique, and he can occasionally win by converting speed to power.
Currently, Bailey projects to be a closer of sorts, pinning his ears back to end drives and, potentially, games. To reach another level, he'll need to earn the rushing-down playing time to do so.
Utah is the biggest test of Bailey's career
Any draftable edge rusher can have a nice day against mediocre linemen. While it's important not to put too much stock into a single game, playing well against early-round competition could prove to be incredibly meaningful. Texas Tech won't be scheming Bailey into advantageous looks against Utah without moving him over the A-gap -- it isn't possible against this offensive line.
The Utes have first-round prospect Spencer Fano at right tackle and a worthy challenger, Caleb Lomu, protecting the blindside. The former is in the conversation for OT1, boasting a blend of tools and technique that help him dominate in pass protection and on the ground. Lomu is weaker as a run blocker but arguably the best pure pass protector in the class, almost mirroring Bailey's profile from across the line of scrimmage.
Both have played well in the early going, elevating their stocks and solidifying their position on Day 1. As Big 12 standouts, they, too, lack quality opponents down the stretch. Bailey is the best edge rusher on the schedule.
Fortunately for the rest of the football world, Bailey has spent time on both sides of the defense in 2025, setting the stage for Fano and Lomu to put out tape against the season's biggest stress test. Bailey might have the most hanging on Saturday's performance, but holding him in check would add credibility to Utah's first-round cases.
The Week 4 slate is the first taste of conference play for numerous schools. As the games become more meaningful, the lights will grow brighter, and a clash of ranked opponents is quite the stage for one of the biggest battles of the 2026 NFL Draft.
Keep your eye on the trenches on Saturday. It might help you tell the future.
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