Texas' Arch Manning predicted to lose No. 1 pick to SEC rival’s breakout star

Despite only a handful of starts under his belt, Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning is the overwhelming favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Manning, who is unsurprisingly a Heisman Trophy favorite entering the season, told reporters at SEC Media Days that he’s not buying into the hype — especially given his lack of experience.

“I’m not sure how they get these opinions — I’ve only played, what, two games,” Manning said. “It’s nice of them to say, but it doesn’t mean anything. Talk is cheap. I gotta go prove it."

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said he’s just focused on Manning having the best season possible, even if that leads to some difficult decisions about the quarterback’s future in Austin.

"I just want the guy to have a really good season this year, and we’ll cross that bridge when he comes to it. I hope he has a really hard decision to make, because that means he played really good," Sarkisian said.

That said, Manning could ultimately snub the draft altogether — or get overtaken by a breakout star. ESPN’s Jordan Reid listed Oklahoma’s John Mateer as his “out-of-nowhere” quarterback to watch who could potentially take the No. 1 spot from Manning.

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"Mateer arrives at OU with high expectations after finishing with 3,139 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions at Washington State in 2024," Reid wrote. "He's one of the most competitive and confident passers I’ve studied on tape in this class and makes downfield throws with ease. Mateer is also mobile, running for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. If he thrives against a schedule that has a Week 2 matchup with Michigan plus eight SEC games, his stock will rise."

Mateer’s current odds of going No. 1 overall are just 2%. But as Reid pointed out, that’s where Miami’s Cam Ward was this time last year.

MORE: Oklahoma transfer QB John Mateer says he snubbed Miami Hurricanes because of Cam Ward

"Since Joe Burrow’s magical 2019 season catapulted him to the top of the 2020 draft, it has been common for under-the-radar quarterbacks to shoot up draft boards high into Round 1,” Reid continued. “Ward was one of four quarterbacks we identified in this section a year ago. This time around, there are two passers with Day 3 grades who could quickly rise.”

The other quarterback Reid mentioned was Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt, who also opened with just a 2% chance.

Reid isn’t the only one high on Mateer’s potential. The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel believes he could “take the country by storm.”

“For one thing, he’s extremely fun to watch, with his quick release and uncanny ability to not get tackled,” Mandel wrote. “He’ll get a lot of credit if he helps the Sooners turn things around. Also, he’s a bit of a character who’s going to give some memorable postgame interviews."

If Mateer can lead the Sooners through another brutal schedule in just their second year in the SEC, there’s little doubt he’ll become a household name.