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If you had Italy beating the United States in baseball on your 2026 bingo card, congrats!
In what was as shocking an outcome as any on the international stage, the Italians upset the Americans, 8-6, on Tuesday night at Daikin Park in Houston.
With a win, the U.S. would have guaranteed itself a spot in the World Baseball Classic quarterfinal, but now, things are a little in flux.
J.J. D’Orazio celebrates as Aaron Judge strikes out to end the game leading Team Italy to an upset 8-6 win over the United States in the 2026 World Baseball Classic on March 10, 2026 in Houston. MLB Photos via Getty ImagesTeam USA (3-1) can still reach the final if Italy (3-0) beats Mexico (2-1). Nevertheless, things get a little hairy if Mexico beats Italy and all three teams finish with identical 3-1 records.
As stated in the WBC rules, there are five levels of tiebreakers used in descending order:
- Record between the teams that are tied
- Runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in games between the tied teams
- Earned runs divided by defensive outs recorded in games between the tied teams
- Batting average in games between the tied teams in games between the tied teams
- Draw lots
If the three teams are 3-1, that rules out the first tiebreaker scenario and moves on to the second one, which involves some algebra. Team USA yielded 11 runs across 54 outs, putting their quotient at .203. If Italy and Mexico finish with a lower total, the Americans are going packing.
Team United States looks on from the dugout in the fifth inning of their stunning loss to Italy. Getty ImagesAccording to Baseball America, the situation comes down to this: if the Mexicans win by scoring four runs or fewer, Team USA is done. But if Mexico beats Italy by scoring five or more runs, Italy is eliminated.
Coming into the tournament, the Americans were viewed as one of the favorites with Japan and the Dominican Republic. But now, with fate out of their hands, the U.S. could be eliminated before the playoff round.
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