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The Canadian economy has the potential to enter an investment “supercycle,” despite its currently stormy relationship with the United States, but it needs reforms to taxes and regulation, Toronto-Dominion Bank said.
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In a new report, economists at Canada’s second-largest bank calculated there’s already more than $1 trillion in proposed long-term projects in key sectors. That includes about $280 billion in the defence industry, as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government spends heavily to rebuild the country’s military.
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Energy is the biggest potential source of investment, with more than $360 billion of proposed spending, including new oil and gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas facilities on the coast of British Columbia.
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“If policymakers get it right and lean more heavily into creating a pro-competitive environment, the investment outlook could be in for a series of upgrades that defies recent history,” said the report by chief economist Beata Caranci and deputy chief economist Derek Burleton. They argue investment levels could increase to $1.5 trillion or more over 10 years, if reforms are made.
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Too much regulation makes projects too slow and deters capital, the economists wrote. Carney and provincial governments are trying to make progress by accelerating the approval process. “However, results matter in order for Canada to overcome the narrative that it is a difficult place to invest,” TD said.
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The structure of Canada’s personal and business tax systems also creates barriers to more rapid growth, the economists said.
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“The U.S.-Canada trade dispute is a compelling reason for Canada to pull the levers that are fully within its control,” Caranci and Burleton wrote.
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