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(Bloomberg) — Chinese coking coal futures have staged a rare recovery this month, with the latest gains driven by temporary halts to production in the mining hub of Shanxi as regulators conduct environmental assessments.
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Inspections in the Linfen area of the province have intensified, and mines delivering about 10.5 million tons a year were verbally notified on Monday to suspend operations, according to industry publication SXCoal. Some miners have reported that the stoppages are provisionally scheduled to last 10 days.
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That’s helped lift prices of the steelmaking fuel on the Dalian exchange to 791.5 yuan ($110) a ton, a 9% gain for the month so far. Futures had hit a nine-year low of 709 yuan at the start of June, less than half of their value a year ago.
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Inspections, whether for safety or environmental reasons, are a feature of China’s mining industry that often crimp supply and boost prices. But the respite this time round should be brief. Miners have been busy in recent years and the country is sitting on a glut of coal, while customers in the steel industry are likely to burn even less as government-mandated output cuts take hold.
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“Sufficient supply, high inventory levels, and weak demand should continue to put downward pressure on coking coal prices in the near term,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Rachel Zhang said in a note on Tuesday.
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On the Wire
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Western nations will take years to develop enough rare earth processing capacity to limit China’s dominance over the critical ingredients, according to industry veteran and former Molycorp Inc. boss Mark Smith.
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China is testing the limits of what its consumer stimulus can accomplish by subsidizing purchases of select goods, fueling a shopping spree that boosted retail sales growth to the strongest in more than a year but threatening to overwhelm authorities even in the richest regions.
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China’s oil demand will stop growing earlier than expected, reinforcing the outlook for a global peak and prolonged supply surplus this decade, the International Energy Agency said.
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This Week’s Diary
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(All times Beijing)
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Wednesday, June 18:
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- China’s May output data for base metals and oil products
- China’s 2nd batch of May trade data
- Grains, sugar, cotton, palm oil, pork & beef imports
- Oil products imports & exports breakdown; LNG & pipeline gas imports
- Bauxite, steel and aluminum imports; rare-earth product, alumina and copper exports
- Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai, day 1
- CCTD’s weekly online briefing on Chinese coal, 15:00
- CSIA’s weekly polysilicon price assessment
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Thursday, June 19:
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- Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai, day 2
- CSIA’s weekly solar wafer price assessment
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Friday, June 20:
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- China sets monthly Loan Prime Rates, 09:00
- China’s 3rd batch of May trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities
- China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
- Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
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—With assistance from Ocean Hou and Winnie Zhu.
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English (US)