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(Bloomberg) — The cost to hire oil supertankers could be headed for the highest levels this decade on the growing risk of a major US attack on Iran, and as ownership of the vessels becomes more concentrated.
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Earnings for a very-large crude carrier on the Middle East-to-China route have already almost tripled so far this year $151,208 a day, the highest since 2020, according to Baltic Exchange data.
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With the US amassing forces in the Middle East and President Donald Trump saying Iran had 10 to 15 days at most to reach a deal over its nuclear program, they look likely to go higher still. A major assault could disrupt traffic in the vital Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk premium to charter ships, while a VLCC buying spree by South Korean shipper Sinokor Merchant Marine is also exacerbating the tightness in the market.
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“Military action in the Middle East will likely take VLCC rates to levels not seen since 2019,” said Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd.
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The nervousness over a possible attack on Iran is showing up on other routes, with earnings for supertankers on the US Gulf to China journey at the highest since late 2022, Baltic Exchange data show.
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The last time oil tanker rates on the Middle East-to-China route were this high was in 2020 when producers began storing more crude at sea after virus-induced lockdowns sapped demand and pushed onshore storage to full capacity.
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This time round, charterers are faced with an increase in oil production at a time when ships for prompt hires are getting more scarce. Global crude output was about 3.9 million barrels a day higher in January than a year earlier, according to the International Energy Agency.
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Sinokor’s rapid purchases of VLCCs have also put the market into fewer hands. The company now controls about 120 supertankers, with rival Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. estimating this week it has almost 40% of the number of unsanctioned ships for hire that aren’t already tied up. These shifts have made the sector more sensitive to geopolitical flareups.
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The consolidation in the VLCC segment will exacerbate any rush to secure tonnage quickly in the Middle East should US-Iran tensions turn into open military action, Kenneth Hvid, chief executive officer at Teekay Tankers Ltd., said in an earnings call held just before Trump set the Iran deadline.
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“Right now it’s more in anticipation of something happening,” he said. “It’s just a situation we need to watch.”
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