We assess the NFL title race after Week 4 and identify three upcoming games that could reshape the Super Bowl picture

Oct 8, 2026 at 7:00 am ET • 6 min read

The NFL International Series rolls on in Week 5 with the second of three games in London, and it marks the first of two consecutive contests in England for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Liam Coen's team returns to its "home away from home" across the Atlantic Ocean for a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles: A contest between two teams trending in opposite directions.

If the Eagles are to save their season and return to Super Bowl contention after back-to-back losses, this is an ideal spot to prove they can beat one of the best teams in the league. If the Jaguars handle their business as favorites, they will extend their winning streak to three games and improve to above .500 all-time in games held in London.

That is not the only impactful showdown on the road to the Super Bowl this week. In fact, even more seismic collisions occur on the West Coast with an NFC West battle between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks and a meeting between the two Super Bowl favorites in the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills.

Here is a look inside the Super Bowl race entering Week 5.

Super Bowl odds entering Week 5

Odds via DraftKings, +2000 or better

Stock up: Jaguars enter London swing in peak form

The next time the Jaguars play on American soil will be in November. Each of their next two games come in London as they become the first NFL team to play consecutive home regular-season games in an international market. For most teams, the departure from the friendly confines of their domestic home stadium to spend two weeks abroad could be seen as a hindrance. For the Jaguars, games in England are nothing new. They should have a logistical advantage over the Eagles and Texans, and they are simply the better team in both matchups, too.

Trevor Lawrence last week finally got a Joe Burrow-sized monkey off his back, as the Jaguars defeated the Bengals 22-17 for Lawrence's first head-to-head win over Burrow in four tries. Jacksonville now has two consecutive victories under its belt in response to its Week 2 loss and might be in the early stages of another extended winning streak. It will be favored in each of its next three games.

Lawrence is easily a top-10 quarterback, but most impressive during the 3-1 start has been the defense. The Jaguars rank second in scoring defense at just 13.3 points allowed per game. The unit stands fifth in EPA per pass despite having to match up against Burrow's high-octane aerial assault and the reigning MVP runner-up, Drake Maye, in consecutive weeks. This squad is more well-rounded than ever and looks poised to avenge last year's 35-7 loss in London with a pair of overseas wins.

Stock down: Eagles crumble into potential rebuild

The odds of Nick Sirianni bringing a second Super Bowl to the City of Brotherly Love in three years are nearly twice as long now as they were heading into Week 4. That is the product of a miserable offensive showing in which the Eagles set a franchise record with 12 third downs without a conversion en route to a 24-20 loss to the Rams. They squandered a 10-point lead in the final four minutes and have now lost two in a row after opening at 2-0. And those two wins to begin the season were hairy, one-score outcomes against bad teams.

This season is heading in the wrong direction for Sirianni. Not all of that is his fault, but he now has work to do in order to save his job, because the pressure is officially on in Philadelphia.

The Eagles closed Week 4 without 10 key players. Injuries to Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Zack Baun and numerous other starters ravaged their roster. Further depleting the squad, Lane Johnson announced his retirement from the NFL, and Philadelphia traded Cam Jurgens in an overhaul of what used to be a stout offensive line. That trade might signal that the Eagles are already prepared to pack things up and move on to next year.

Long shot of the week: Falcons (+8000)

With the 12-longest odds to win the Super Bowl, the market might not have caught up to the Falcons quite yet. This is no championship frontrunner, but it is a completely different team with Michael Penix Jr. running the offense, and it is one that at least deserves the respect of a division favorite.

When Cooper Rush was under center, the Falcons lost their first two games, scored a combined 16 points and coughed up seven turnovers. In the two games with Penix at quarterback, the offense racked up 80 points, managed nearly twice as many yards and turned the ball over just once. Atlanta went from 0-2 to 2-2 at the flip of a switch. Now that there is a signal-caller in the lineup capable of feeding the ball to Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, a unit that stands among the NFL's most talented collection of skill players can excel.

It is not just the offense that is getting the job done now, too. The Falcons also rank third in the league with a 43.6% pressure rate and boast the NFL's stingiest run defense by a hefty margin, having allowed just 48.3 yards per game. All of that is without Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. on a defensive front that was supposed to sputter in their absences.

Week 5 games to watch

Bills at Rams

Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC, stream on Fubo

With respect to the Australia game between the Rams and 49ers, Week 5 presents the biggest showdown of the year thus far. Los Angeles hosts the Bills in what may be a Super Bowl preview. These two teams hold the best odds to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Both star-studded squads need a momentum-building win in this spot because the Rams did not appear nearly as strong as expected in their 2-2 start and the Bills seek to avoid a two-game losing streak on the heels of their first loss of the year.

49ers at Seahawks

Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox, stream on Fubo

The 49ers are already the top team in the NFC West with a 4-0 record and two wins in divisional play, but they can take complete command of football's best division with a win in Week 5. They already topped the Rams in their season-opening blowout, so to defeat the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks on the road would be the second statement win over a divisional foe in the first quarter of the season. Seattle's defense let off the gas over the last two weeks and needs to get right in this big spot, because the next four games are a gauntlet.

Eagles at Jaguars (London)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network, stream on Fubo

A loss in England would not end the Eagles' season, but it might create the kind of downward spiral that derails the rest of the campaign. A three-game losing streak amid the onslaught of injuries and coaching scrutiny Philadelphia faces at this juncture would be awful for momentum. On the flip side, this is where the Jaguars need to pounce. Squaring off against a downtrodden team, they have a chance to build early separation in a top-heavy AFC South and cement themselves as a top-tier conference championship contender.