Strike Baker Mayfield’s MVP odds before the market adjusts

Everyone knows the NFL MVP is a quarterback’s award, and when it comes to how voters evaluate candidates, wins are the metric that carries gravitas.  

If Baker Mayfield hadn’t defined this criteria through four weeks, Sunday’s 38-35 shootout victory over the Seahawks sure put him on the map as a realistic contender. 

Mayfield aired 379 yards for two touchdowns, completed 29-of-33 and threw zero interceptions. With the game tied 35-35, Mayfield led a mistake-free drive with under two minutes remaining to set up the game-winning field goal off of Chase McLaughlin’s foot.

The Bucs renaissance quarterback now ranks No. 4 overall in passing yards (256.5 per game) and is tied for third in touchdowns (8). He’s thrown one pick in the Bucs’ 4-1 start.

On planets where Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes don’t exist, Mayfield is the MVP favorite. 

Here on Earth ahead of Week 6, he is priced as long as 11/1 at bet365.

Allen, the reigning winner, and Mahomes, who has earned the award twice in the last seven seasons, are favorites priced as low as +130 and +400, respectively.

In recent years, the MVP market has been stubborn with Allen and Mahomes (and Lamar Jackson when healthy) because — aside from wielding the pedigree already — their teams always project Super Bowl potential.

Baker Mayfield has immense value in the NFL MVP market with 11/1 odds after leading the Bucs to a 4-1 start. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Though how good are the Bills and Chiefs in contrast to a seemingly progressing Bucs team that won the NFC South in back-to-back seasons with Mayfield under center? And beyond that, the more important question is: does the betting market reflect their actual value?

After the Chiefs’ 31-28 fall to Jacksonville on Monday night, Mahomes stood pat at 4/1. Now 2-3, the Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds only dropped from +750 to +900 at bet365. Kansas City is ranked sixth overall in EPA.

The Bills, 4-1, took their first loss in a 23-20 loss to the Patriots as 8.5-point favorites. They remain Super Bowl favorites at +475. Buffalo remains second overall in EPA.

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Tampa Bay, which plays Buffalo on Nov. 16, ranks at eighth.

If Kansas City and Buffalo do in fact fall short of their win totals, it would be defensive inefficiencies to blame. Other than Adrian Peterson in 2012, no MVP has come from a team with fewer than 11 wins since 2000.

Neither Allen nor Mahomes rank above Mayfield in ypg or touchdowns while both are coming off upset losses. 

Setting team narratives aside, Mayfield has shown efficiency without sacrifice, adaptability and clutch delivery as a leader this season. Let’s remember, voters and oddsmakers are separate parties here, and the lines are reflecting that.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.