Starmer Rivals Plot Slow-Motion Takeover After UK Election Rout

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(Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Keir Starmer pulled through the immediate aftermath of bruising UK local elections, but his longer-term position remained in jeopardy as his Labour rivals touted a plan to replace him with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.

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On Friday evening, Labour was on course to lose more than 1,400 of the roughly 2,500 council seats it was defending across England as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK surged across the country. That swing makes good on a year-long poll lead for the right-wing populist leader, and underlined his chances of success at the next general election. 

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Labour also endured an historic collapse to the nationalist Plaid Cymru in Wales, and saw many of their London seats fall to the Greens. 

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In England the results, which will continue to trickle in over the weekend, have so far avoided a worst-case scenario seen by many pollsters but nonetheless represent a damning verdict from voters almost two years on from Starmer’s landslide general election victory in July 2024.

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It renews focus on the premier’s leadership, which has been imperiled by damaging scandals, dire opinion polls and criticism from across Labour that he is failing to deliver the change he promised Britons when he swept aside 14 years of Conservative rule.

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His Chancellor Rachel Reeves was among cabinet ministers tweeting a tepid show of support, saying “Keir Starmer won a mandate to change our country. We must get on with delivering that mandate.” The question before her colleagues is whether they can continue the mandate without the man. 

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Most of the Labour Members of Parliament and aides who spoke to Bloomberg on Friday said they thought Starmer would fend off the threat of an immediate challenge. However, most also agreed he was unlikely to lead Labour into the next general election, due in 2029.

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“If we go into the next election with him we’re going to get slaughtered,” Labour MP Simon Opher told Sky News on Friday. “What we really want is a really planned, orderly timetable, and a real contest,” he said, adding he wanted Burnham to be on the ballot.

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“The status quo clearly isn’t sustainable,” Labour MP Vicky Foxcroft told Bloomberg.

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The majority of MPs in the so-called soft-left faction of the Labour Party have coalesced behind a proposal to replace Starmer with Burnham in the next year, several lawmakers aligned to that caucus said, speaking on condition of anonymity discussing internal party politics. Keeping an immediate leadership challenge at bay and then maneuvering a Burnham run is the play for that faction, they said.

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At least 20 Labour MPs, including Louise Haigh, a standard bearer on the so-called soft left, went public with calls for Starmer to agree to what they characterized as an orderly transition of power to a new leader, some explicitly backing a Burnham premiership as the end goal. Haigh was said to be canvassing support for the idea with the support of Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, people familiar with the matter said.