Starmer Premiership in Crisis After Day of Drama in Parliament

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The scandal arrives as Starmer battles record-low popularity ratings. On the horizon are May local elections in which the government is predicted to do badly against an ascendant Reform UK, which could also prove a vulnerable moment for a prime minister losing the support of his backbenchers. 

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Some 95% of Britons were aware of Mandelson’s appearance in the Epstein files, polling by YouGov showed on Wednesday. Almost half said they were following the story closely.

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“In situations like this, change can go from unlikely to inevitable very rapidly indeed,” said Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester. 

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It will come as a relief for the prime minister that Wes Streeting, one of his best-placed rivals, is a close Mandelson ally. That makes it hard for him to resign in disgust over the premier’s judgment in keeping Mandelson close, two senior Labour officials said.

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Others who command support of broad sections of the Party — Andy Burnham, Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner — have reasons of their own to delay. Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, was recently blocked by Starmer from standing for the parliamentary seat he would need to mount a challenge for the leadership post.

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Rayner’s tax affairs are not yet in order after she resigned as deputy prime minister over them in September. And Miliband, the energy secretary, has always publicly professed his loyalty to the premier after trying and failing to win a general election himself.

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Many on the left of the party have said they warned Starmer that rehabilitating Mandelson would be a bad decision. Their fury makes the chance of a leadership challenge more probable than it was on Tuesday, as the gilt curve steepened and the pound weakened against the euro through the afternoon.

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Rayner’s influence was on display when she stood up to pressure the government to run disclosures through the security committee. A Labour official said she had made clear she was a serious player ahead of any leadership contest.

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The Metropolitan Police entered the fray in an evening statement in which they said they asked the government “not to release certain documents at this time,” owing to its ongoing investigation into Mandelson. The police said Tuesday they would be investigating the former ambassador’s conduct in public office.

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Despite that 11th-hour intervention, Starmer’s appointment of a man — who, in his own words, “betrayed our country,” “lied repeatedly,” and was “responsible for a litany of deceit” — is forcing one of the most dangerous moments of his premiership yet. 

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—With assistance from Ellen Milligan, Irina Anghel and Alex Morales.

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