Stanley Cup predictions: Is Mitch Marner best value to win Conn Smythe Trophy?

Mitch Marner has stolen the headlines during the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The playmaking winger leads the postseason with 21 points (seven goals, 14 assists) and is playing over 21 minutes a night for the Golden Knights. His reputation as a defensive stalwart also has shone through as the 29-year-old is plus-12 in 16 contests, the best mark of any forward in the playoffs.

It’s no wonder Marner is favored to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. He’s +170 at bet365 Sportsbook, which puts him just ahead of Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen (+275).

What is most notable about the Conn Smythe market heading into the Stanley Cup Final between Vegas and Carolina is that Marner is the only Knights player under 14/1.

Jack Eichel, right behind Marner with 18 points, and goaltender Carter Hart are 14/1 and 16/1, respectively. Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden, who lead the playoffs with 10 goals apiece, are even further back at 60/1 and 150/1.

In other words, the bookmakers are telling us that, should Vegas win the Stanley Cup, it’s going to be Marner lifting the Conn Smythe, barring anything unforeseen, like an injury.

It’s hard to argue with them.

Not only has Marner been the most impactful player on the ice for his team, he also has a compelling story following him. After years of postseason disappointment with the Maple Leafs, the Toronto native was made a scapegoat for the team’s annual playoff collapses and was subsequently run out of his hometown.

Needless to say, his gangbusters performance this spring for Vegas has caused quite a commotion in Toronto, which is easily the most unique and influential media market in hockey. It will be very hard for the journalists covering the series to ignore Marner’s storyline when it comes time to vote for the winner, assuming a Vegas win.

Taylor Hall leads the Hurricanes in scoring through three rounds. AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker

The Golden Knights are +130 to win the series, but Marner is +170 to win the Conn Smythe, so it probably makes more sense to just bet the latter if you’re interested in the former.

It’s a completely different story for the Hurricanes.

While Andersen is the favorite among Carolina players, he’s one of four Canes who are at the top of the board. Taylor Hall is +550, Logan Stankoven is +900, and Jackson Blake is 11/1. Those three make up coach Rod Brind’Amour’s vaunted second line, which has been the standout trio in the playoffs so far.

But unlike Vegas, there are a host of other players on Carolina’s roster who can make a run at the Conn Smythe with a big performance in the Stanley Cup Final.

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Sebastian Aho has been relatively quiet with seven points (four goals, three assists) in 13 playoff contests, but he has a couple of game-winners and the ability to put points up in bunches. Same goes for Seth Jarvis, the other key cog on Carolina’s first line, who has eight points (three goals, five assists) to date.

Aho and Jarvis could benefit from John Tortorella’s gameplanning, too.

K’Andre Miller leads the playoffs at plus-14. Getty Images

One of the hallmarks of the Vegas coach’s philosophy is to try to take away the opposition’s biggest strength, and undoubtedly the veteran has identified the Hall-Stankoven-Blake line as Carolina’s in this postseason.

Aho and/or Jarvis are worth a hard look at 50/1, but there is one other player on the Hurricanes who is making an interesting case.

K’Andre Miller entered the playoffs regarded as Carolina’s third-most important defenseman behind Jaccob Slavin and Jalen Chatfield, but the former Ranger has been a revelation thus far and could garner some votes if he rolls his current form into the Stanley Cup Final.

Miller is plus-14, the best mark in the postseason, and has been on the ice for 16 of Carolina’s 42 goals in the playoffs.

It would take more of the same, plus some offensive production, from Miller to get enough votes to leapfrog Andersen, Hall, Stankoven and Blake, but he’s certainly on the radar, and that’s enough to be interesting at 75/1.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.