St. John’s vs. Duke prediction: March Madness 2026 pick, odds, best bet for Sweet 16 Friday

We’re on to the Sweet 16, a round that historically has provided some of the most memorable games, shots, and moments in the NCAA Tournament.

Fridays game between No. 5 St. John’s and No. 1 Duke is the must-see game of the round.

Much has been made of the Johnnies’ impressive run so far. The school hasn’t been this far in the tournament since 1999, when they made it to the Elite Eight.

The Blue Devils have seen plenty of success in the tournament over the years and have been on a mission all season. Duke fell just short of a win against Houston in the Final Four last year and is one of the favorites to make it to the national semifinal this year.

Naturally, Duke is the favorite in the game with the spread settling at 6.5 and the Over/Under listed at 141.5.

St. John’s vs. Duke prediction, best bet

The matchup everyone will be focused on is Zubi Ejiofor and Cameron Boozer.

Ejiofor, this year’s Big East Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, is the engine for St. John’s on offense and their stopper on defense. He has shone even brighter in St. John’s last five games through the Big East Tournament and March Madness, averaging 18.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 3.4 blocks.

Boozer, the ACC Player of the Year and likely Wooden Award winner, has flashed his all-around game over that same span, averaging 20.2 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 4.8 assists through the ACC Tournament and opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

Duke forward Cameron Boozer (12) reacts after scoring against TCU during the NCAA tournament. AP

How close those two stars can get to playing their best while trying to defend against the other will go a long way to dictating how this game plays out. TCU and Siena were aggressive in trying to stop Boozer and forcing him to play in crowds in the paint. He had back-to-back games with five turnovers, and it won’t get any easier against a St. John’s team that ranked 49th in Turnover Forced with 13.6 per game this season.

Of course, Duke is supremely talented up and down its roster, with a legitimate scoring threat on the wing in Isiah Evans. The sophomore guard showed the ability to shoot off the dribble, but didn’t shy away from contact when driving into the lane either.

St. John’s can combat that with its secondary scorers, Oziyah Sellers and Bryce Hopkins, two players with the size to score against Duke’s long and athletic wing defenders. But scoring in the paint will be a challenge for St. John’s when Patrick Ngongba and Boozer are on the floor together.

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I certainly expect St. John’s to hang with Duke just because they are such a scrappy bunch. Their win over Kansas showed their poise and ability to play all the way to the buzzer.

I don’t expect a barn burner here. Both of these teams have trended toward the Under in their games all season.

The Under is 24-12 (66.7 percent) in Duke games this season and 23-12 (65.7 percent) in St. John’s games. And while this total is on the low end for both teams compared to the lines they’ve had all season, the Under is 7-1 for Duke and 3-1 for St. John’s when the total is 141.5 or lower. 

The Pick: Under 141.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.