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Can anyone derail Round 3 between St. John’s and Connecticut?
That is the overwhelming question of this week’s Big East Tournament in this top-heavy league.
Few teams stopped, let alone slowed down, St. John’s and Connecticut during a regular season in which the league’s only two ranked teams went a combined 35-5 — with two of those losses coming against each other. Third-place Villanova was winless in four meetings against the Red Storm and Huskies, and was blown out twice. No. 4 Seton Hall may have the best shot to ruin the party, considering it played the top-seeded Johnnies tough in a pair of close losses, and could draw St. John’s in the semifinals.
Still, a third showdown between the Johnnies and Huskies seems inevitable. They split the season series, each winning on the other’s home court, which sets up perfectly for a rubber match at the Garden on Saturday night as the Storm go for a second straight Big East Tournament title.
It all gets going with a tripleheader on Wednesday. The Post breaks it all down:
No. 1 St. John’s (25-6, 18-2)
Coach: Rick Pitino
Star: Sr. F Zuby Ejiofor (16.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG)
The Big East’s Defensive Player of the Year will also likely be the overall Player of the Year when it is announced Wednesday. He is arguably the best Johnnie this century, a two-way dynamo and team captain who is the one common denominator between last year’s Big East champion and this one.
X factor: Sr. F Dillon Mitchell (8.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG)
Ejiofor predicted in the preseason that Mitchell would be the team’s X factor. He was right. The Red Storm’s season flipped when Pitino moved the 6-foot-8 Mitchell into the starting lineup following a Jan. 3 loss to Providence. Since then, St. John’s is 16-1. He is the rare player who can make a major difference without scoring.
Strength: Turnover margin.
St. John’s takes the ball away and doesn’t give it up much, leading the conference in turnover margin at plus-3.35.
Weakness: Guard play.
Dylan Darling has been steady at point guard after a slow start, but the other guards — Oziyah Sellers, Ian Jackson and Joson Sanon — have all been hit or miss.
Can win title if: Two of the four aforementioned guards bring it each game. The Ejiofor-led frontcourt will do its part, but St. John’s needs production out of its guards, especially if it draws Connecticut in the final.
BetMGM Odds: +175
No. 2 Connecticut (27-4, 17-3)
Coach: Dan Hurley
Star: Jr. G Silas Demary Jr. (11.1 PPG, 6.5 APG)
Connecticut went from 75th in defensive efficiency a year ago to 11th this winter, and Demary deserves a lot of credit for that. The Georgia transfer is terrific on that end of the floor and he took a leap offensively as well, posting career highs in assists (6.5), field goal percentage (46.8) and 3-point percentage (42.0).
X factor: Sr. F Tarris Reed Jr. (13.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG)
An engaged Reed at both ends of the floor makes UConn incredibly tough to beat. Just ask St. John’s, which had no answer for the big man in its 32-point loss to the Huskies on Feb. 25. But Reed is prone to foul trouble and doesn’t always bring it defensively, as the loss to the Johnnies on Feb. 6 showed.
Strength: 3-point shooting.
UConn shot 36.3 percent as a team from distance during the Big East season. The Huskies start four potent deep threats in Demary, Alex Karaban, Braylon Mullins and Solo Ball.
Weakness: Frontcourt depth.
Karaban is really a wing playing the four, and Reed’s backup is a freshman, Eric Reibe. There isn’t a true power forward on the roster.
Can win the title if: The Connecticut team that manhandled Villanova and St. John’s by a combined 42 points in back-to-back wins shows up at MSG for three nights. That version of the Huskies can win it all the first week in April.
BetMGM Odds: -115
No. 3 Villanova (24-7, 15-5)
Coach: Kevin Willard
Star: Fr. G Acaden Lewis (12.5 PPG, 5.3 APG)
Who knows where Villanova would be if it didn’t land the top 50 point guard last spring, but the Wildcats wouldn’t be preparing to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2022, that’s for sure.
X factor: Sr. G Devin Askew (10.1 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
Askew, the Big East Sixth Man of the Year, is even more important after Villanova lost starting wing Matt Hodge to a season-ending knee injury in late February.
Strength: Defending the 3.
Nobody was better in league play at shutting off the perimeter than the Wildcats, who held the opposition to a conference-low 31.1 percent from downtown.
Weakness: The league’s powers.
St. John’s and Connecticut went 4-0 against the Wildcats and beat them by an average of 14.2 points.
Can win the title if: Someone picks off St. John’s. The Johnnies manhandled Villanova in a season sweep. It’s one thing for Villanova to upset Connecticut in the semifinals, but it’s hard to see Willard’s team taking down both of them in successive days.
BetMGM Odds: +650
No. 4 Seton Hall (20-11, 10-10)
Coach: Shaheen Holloway
Star: Jr. G Adam “Budd” Clark (12.4 PPG, 4.7 APG)
The 5-foot-10 floor general is a defensive menace who makes Seton Hall go. He has a strong midrange game, and has adjusted well to the Big East level after starring at Merrimack. He can be one of the league’s premier guards next winter if he returns to Seton Hall.
X factor: Fr. F Najai Hines (6.5 PPG, 2.2 BPG)
The 6-foot-10 freshman is coming on, with two double-doubles in his last four games. He’s a load inside and could be a star as he develops further offensively — not just in this league, but in the entire sport.
Strength: Rim protection.
Nobody is better nationally at blocking shots. The Pirates reject a whopping 18.8 percent of their opponents’ attempts.
Weakness: Shooting.
Seton Hall is 331st out of 365 Division I teams in 3-point shooting at 30.5 percent.
Can win title if: Shots fall. It’s really that simple. Seton Hall pushed St. John’s and Connecticut in all four meetings. The Pirates rarely get blown out. They just don’t produce nearly enough on the offensive end to beat top teams.
BetMGM Odds: 18/1
No. 5 Creighton (15-16, 9-11)
Coach: Greg McDermott
Star: Sr. G Josh Dix (12.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
One of the league’s top perimeter defenders has found his game at the right time, posting 15.8 points and 42.3 percent 3-point shooting over the last eight contests.
X factor: Jr. F Jasen Green (10.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG)
The versatile big man took a major step forward this winter in more than doubling his scoring output and improving as a secondary playmaker and 3-point threat.
Strength: Free throw percentage.
Creighton led the league at the charity stripe at 77.1 percent.
Weakness: Interior defense.
Creighton was dead last in the league in blocked shots percentage at 5.8.
Can win title if: Can the Bluejays borrow four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner from the Hornets for three games?
BetMGM Odds: 50/1
No. 6 DePaul (16-15, 8-12)
Coach: Chris Holtmann
Star: Sr. G CJ Gunn (13.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
The shotmaking wing was a big part of DePaul winning its most conference games in 19 years.
X factor: Jr. G Layden Blocker (10.9 PPG, 3.4 APG)
The dogged defender has improved offensively, and when he makes shots, DePaul is a real threat. He’s the linchpin to the Blue Demons’ top 40 efficiency defense.
Strength: Pressure defense.
DePaul forces 12.7 turnovers per game, the fourth most in the league.
Weakness: 3-point defense.
The opposition shot 35.8 percent from long range against DePaul during the regular season and 37.1 percent in Big East action. Both were the worst marks in the conference.
Can win title if: Hey, it’s not nearly as far-fetched as past seasons. Let’s start with getting to the semifinals Friday night. That has never happened before for DePaul.
BetMGM Odds: 10/1
No. 7 Marquette (12-19, 7-13)
Coach: Shaka Smart
Star: Fr. G Nigel James Jr. (16.4 PPG, 4.8 APG)
The Big East Freshman of the Year favorite has given Marquette fans something to smile about in an otherwise disastrous season. The 6-foot point guard has improved as the year has gone on, already emerging as the face of the program.
X factor: Fr. G Adrien Stevens (8.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
Marquette’s play has improved as Stevens has become more reliable, giving the Golden Eagles a marksman beyond the arc. He was pivotal in recent wins over Georgetown, Providence and Connecticut.
Strength: Taking the ball away.
Marquette was first in the Big East in steal percentage at 13.5.
Weakness: Defensive rebounding.
Marquette is 336th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage at 64.9. The only high-major team worse: Georgia.
Can win title if: Saturday’s stunner over Connecticut was a preview of this tournament for the Golden Eagles. Marquette looked legit, far better than its 12-19 record.
BetMGM Odds: 80/1
No. 8 Butler (16-15, 7-13)
Coach: Thad Matta
Star: Sr. F Michael Ajayi (16.3 PPG, 11.1 RPG)
The Gonzaga transfer led the Big East in rebounding and showcased an impressive all-around game this season as a better-than-advertised playmaker and scorer.
X factor: Soph. G Evan Haywood (7.3 PPG, 1.9 RPG)
One of Butler’s best 3-point shooters is needed to take pressure off the big two of Ajayi and junior guard Finley Bizjack.
Strength: Stars.
Ajayi and Bizjack can carry Butler. The duo averaged a combined 33.4 points per game.
Weakness: Two-point defense.
League foes shot a through-the-roof 57.4 percent inside the arc. The lack of a true rim protector was frequently exposed.
Can win title if: Their injured point guards, Jalen Jackson and Azavier Robinson, magically get healthy. Those injuries submarined the Bulldogs.
BetMGM Odds: 100/1
No. 9 Providence (14-17, 7-13)
Coach: Kim English
Star: Sr. G Jaylin Sellers (18.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
The 6-foot-5 senior should’ve been a first-team selection, as the conference’s leading scorer. He entered the Big East Tournament scorching hot, averaging 23 points and shooting an astronomical 53.7 percent from 3-point range over his last nine games.
X factor: Soph. F Oswin Erhunmwunse (7.2 PPG, 8.6 RPG)
When the 6-foot-10 big man scores in double figures, Providence is 6-3. He’s a legitimate rim protector and alley-oop threat. The sophomore just doesn’t impact games consistently enough.
Strength: Backcourt.
When the trio of Sellers, Jason Edwards and Stefan Vaaks all have it going, they can be scary.
Weakness: Defense.
The Friars don’t guard anyone. They rank as the third-worst power conference team in the country in defensive efficiency at 187th. Only Utah and Penn State have lower ratings.
Can win title if: All that talent comes together for four days after a dismal regular season of wasted opportunities. Providence has plenty of ability — on paper only St. John’s and Connecticut boast superior rosters — it just hasn’t translated into results.
BetMGM Odds: 80/1
No. 10 Xavier (14-17, 6-14)
Coach: Richard Pitino
Star: Sr. F Tre Carroll (18.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
Carroll’s status for the Big East Tournament is uncertain due to a hip injury. It would be a shame if the all-league first-team selection can’t go. An offensive dynamo who can score inside and out, the 6-foot-8 Florida Atlantic transfer had a fantastic season.
X factor: Sr. F Filip Borovicanin (10.5 PPG, 4.2 APG)
The 6-foot-9 forward has guard skills, and he has shined of late, scoring in double figures in Xavier’s final four games.
Strength: Sharing the ball.
Xavier was second in the league in assists per game at 17.6.
Weakness: Offensive rebounding.
In the Big East, only Creighton averaged fewer offensive boards than the Musketeers. Their offensive rebounding percentage of 26.5 was 311th nationally.
Can win title if: Is Carroll healthy? Let’s start there. Without him, Xavier won’t see Thursday.
BetMGM Odds: 200/1
No. 11 Georgetown (14-17, 6-14)
Coach: Ed Cooley
Star: Jr. G Malik Mack (13.7 PPG, 4.2 APG)
The junior point guard has become even more essential after KJ Lewis’ season-ending ankle injury as Georgetown’s top playmaker and perimeter threat.
X factor: Soph. G Kayvaun Mulready (5.3 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
The late-season loss of Lewis has created a bigger opportunity for Mulready, and he has stepped to the forefront, averaging 17 points over his last three games. The Hoyas need his offense.
Strength: No pressure.
Nobody is expecting much from Georgetown this week. The Hoyas have nothing to lose.
Weakness: Closing games.
Eleven of the Hoyas’ 14 league losses came by single digits. Cooley’s group rarely comes through in crunch time.
Can win title if: Patrick Ewing and Allen Iverson gain four games of eligibility. Hey, there are no rules anymore anyway, right?
BetMGM Odds: 100/1
Braziller Prediction: No. 1 St. John’s over No. 2 Connecticut
Most Outstanding Player: St. John’s senior forward Zuby Ejiofor
It’s going to be a chalky tournament. Friday night will feature the top four seeds, and the favorites advance to Saturday night in what will be an absolutely electric scene. Connecticut was dominant in its second meeting with St. John’s, winning by 32 points in Hartford. History doesn’t repeat itself. Ejiofor won’t allow it, leaving the Garden floor for the last time as a Johnnie and a champion as the Red Storm defend their conference tournament titl
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