Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Game 1 prediction: NBA Playoff picks, odds

The Spurs and Trail Blazers will open their first-round series Sunday night in a matchup the betting market views as one of the most lopsided on the board. 

San Antonio is a 10.5-point favorite in Game 1 over Portland, who enters the postseason as the West’s No. 7 seed after a NBA play-in tournament win over the Phoenix Suns. 

The Blazers actually played the Spurs well this season, winning one game in San Antonio and staying close in two others before losing. 

There’s just one major issue for Portland: Victor Wembanyama didn’t play in any of those games. 

That’s bad news for Deni Avdija, who dominated those three matchups but will have a hard time dealing with the likely NBA Defensive Player of the Year award winner. 

Avdija averaged 31.7 points per game on a ridiculous 54.8 percent shooting against the Spurs this season. 

The Israeli native’s unique play style leads to a lot of scoring in the paint — during the regular season, he made 4.2 field goals in the painted area per game, which is a number among the likes of big men Karl-Anthony Towns and Ivica Zubac. 

Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs smiles during the game against the Dallas Mavericks on April 10, 2026 at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. NBAE via Getty Images

That won’t be happening with Wembanyama lurking. 

The Spurs allowed just 46.4 points in the paint per game, which was the seventh-fewest in the league during the regular season. 

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They allowed opponents to shoot just 61.4 percent on attempts inside five feet, which was fourth-best in basketball. 

Avdija will find other ways to affect the game, but Portland will need to get their scoring from elsewhere with Wembanyama guarding the basket against them for the first time this season. 

The play: Deni Avdija to score fewer than 24.5 points (-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.