Spurs predicted to overtake Thunder as NBA’s best team by 2030

The Oklahoma City Thunder already possess a championship-caliber roster, a collection of young stars and enough draft capital to remain near the top of the NBA for years.

That still was not enough to earn them the No. 1 position in The Sporting News’ future power rankings.

The San Antonio Spurs claimed the top spot in Stephen Noh’s projection of where all 30 NBA teams will stand in 2030. Oklahoma City followed at No. 2, setting up what could become the league’s defining rivalry over the next several seasons.

The difference between the two teams starts with Victor Wembanyama.

Wembanyama gives San Antonio an unmatched advantage

Wembanyama will be 26 years old during the 2029-30 season and should be in the heart of his prime. The 7-foot-4 star already has developed into one of the NBA’s most impactful two-way players. If he continues on his current trajectory, he could be the league’s best player by the time the projection arrives.

San Antonio also should have Dylan Harper, 23, and Stephon Castle, 25, entering their respective primes. Both guards carry significant long-term upside and offer the size, defensive versatility and playmaking ability needed to complement Wembanyama. The financial picture could become complicated. Wembanyama will earn more than $50 million annually, even after accepting less than the maximum available on his extension. Castle and Harper eventually will require expensive new contracts as well.

De’Aaron Fox could be the player squeezed out. Fox is scheduled to earn approximately $61 million at age 32 during the 2029-30 season. San Antonio might need to trade him before then to create enough flexibility to retain its younger core and construct a balanced roster around Wembanyama.

The Spurs received an A asset grade from The Sporting News, giving them the draft capital and trade pieces necessary to solve those problems.

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Thunder remain built for sustained contention

Oklahoma City’s placement at No. 2 is hardly an insult. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be 31 in 2030, while Jalen Williams will be 28 and Chet Holmgren 27. All three should remain among the NBA’s best players at their positions.

The Thunder also have a collection of developing players that includes Cason Wallace, Thomas Sorber, Nikola Topic, Jared McCain, Ajay Mitchell and Aday Mara. Not all of them will remain in Oklahoma City because of financial constraints, but general manager Sam Presti has consistently converted surplus talent and picks into valuable rotation pieces.

Oklahoma City already has traded Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins while attempting to manage its future payroll. More difficult decisions will come. The Thunder’s advantage is that their championship window already is open. San Antonio’s case rests more heavily on projected improvement and Wembanyama eventually becoming the NBA’s dominant force.

If that happens, the Spurs could own the league in 2030. The Thunder might be the only team equipped to stop them.

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