South Africa CPI Cools in February, Unlikely to Prompt Rate Cut

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Lesetja Kganyago, governor of South Africa's Reserve Bank.Lesetja Kganyago, governor of South Africa's Reserve Bank. Photo by Kent Nishimura /Photographer: Kent Nishimura/Blo

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(Bloomberg) — South African inflation eased in February, but the central bank is unlikely to view this as a reason to cut interest rates next week as it weighs the impact of conflict in the Middle East.

Financial Post

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Consumer prices rose 3% year-on-year compared with 3.5% a month earlier, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa said in a statement on Wednesday. The median estimate of 15 economists in a Bloomberg survey was 3.1%.

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The South African Reserve Bank targets 3% inflation, but the data probably won’t sway expectations that it will leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 6.75% at the conclusion of its policy meeting on March 26. 

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Officials need to assess the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran, which has sent energy prices surging with sprawling implications for the global economic outlook.

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Oil prices have jumped more than 40% since the fighting started on Feb. 28, with Brent crude trading at around $102 a barrel on Wednesday. The rand has meanwhile weakened sharply against the dollar.

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Central Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago on March 5 said that South African inflation was influenced more by currency weakness than oil prices.

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Policymakers are also monitoring food inflation, with meat prices already under pressure as the nation battles to contain an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in its herds. Elevated fuel prices will have a knock-on effect on the cost of fertilizer, a key agricultural input, giving officials another reason for caution.

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The biggest contributors to inflation were housing and utilities, which rose 4.8% and contributed 1.1 percentage point to the increase, and food and non-alcoholic beverages which rose 3.7%, adding 0.7 percentage point. Headline inflation rose 0.4% in the month, up from 0.2% in January.

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Core inflation, which excludes volatile food, fuel and energy prices to grant a picture of underlying price pressures, rose 3% year-on-year. That compared with 3.4% in January. It was up 0.7% in the month versus 0.3%.

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(Updates with more details from fifth paragraph.)

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