Solar Storms Pose Risks to Under-Prepared UK, Watchdog Says

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(Bloomberg) — The UK is not fully prepared for a severe space weather event that could disrupt power systems, air travel and mobile networks, causing billions of economic losses, a government watchdog found.

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Most solar flares and space weather events are minor, but the risk of disruptions are growing as nations increasingly rely on power grids, satellites, GPS and radio communications. A geomagnetic storm in 2024 shifted thousands of satellites from their orbits, and a burst of radio waves from the sun in 2015 interfered with air traffic control radars across Europe. 

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UK agencies have made progress in understanding the immediate impact of severe space weather since the government made it a national security priority in 2011. But it’s still struggling to grasp how the knock-on effects of a solar flare could cascade through key services, according to a report from the National Audit Office released on Friday.

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The government says severe space weather is one of the most serious natural or environmental threats and predicts there’s a 5% to 25% chance of such an event in the next five years. 

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The most extreme solar storm on record — the “Carrington Event” of 1859 — reportedly started small fires and created an aurora visible in the tropics. A similar event today would have an £9 billion ($12 billion) impact, according to UK Met Office assessment in 2022, but the watchdog questioned whether the government had done enough research to make accurate cost calculations.

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The watchdog blamed government bureaucracy for patchy planning for such an event, with blurry roles for the various technology, energy, transport and weather agencies assigned the task.

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“The cross-cutting nature of the risk and its impacts requires coordinated action across government, but as with many cross-cutting issues, there is confusion over roles and responsibilities,” Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chair of the committee of public accounts, said in a statement.

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The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, which now oversees much of the planning, welcomed the NAO’s findings and will publish an updated space weather strategy later this year, according to a department spokesperson.

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The UK Met Office has had a lead role forecasting space weather since 2014. But overall spending remains small, even as the annual budget is set to grow by at least two-thirds to an average of £11.2 million through 2030.

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The watchdog also found that while collaborations with the US and Europe are an essential part of the UK space weather’s response, they’re also a weakness. 

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The UK gets crucial data from US space weather researchers, but it depends on information from US satellites that are past or near the end of their expected lives, according to the report. 

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The UK has committed roughly £300 million to the European Space Agency’s Vigil program — about half the funding so far — but the region’s space weather warning system isn’t set to launch until 2031, according to the report.

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(Updates with details throughout)

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