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(Bloomberg) — SoftBank Group Corp.’s stock faces a critical test this week as investors seek reassurance that the company’s AI value extends beyond its debt-fueled bet on embattled ChatGPT operator OpenAI.
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Masayoshi Son’s conglomerate is set to release first-quarter earnings on Thursday in Tokyo, with all eyes on updates surrounding its most recent forays into robotics, data centers and energy. Signs of progress on such deals could help offset doubts about how the company is financing its $65 billion OpenAI stake, especially amid speculation that Sam Altman’s firm may delay its public listing.
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SoftBank’s results will also serve as a litmus test for the broader AI trade, which has struggled to regain momentum after fears about the sustainability of huge corporate spending triggered a widespread selloff in July.
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The current market environment would react harshly to signs of tapering growth, but resilient results “could just as easily reassure markets that the aggressive pivot toward AI remains well-calculated,” said Nikos Tzabouras, a senior financial strategist at trading platform Tradu.
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Broadly seen as a bellwether for AI sentiment in Japan, SoftBank briefly became the nation’s most valuable company by market capitalization in June, but has now slipped back to third place. Its shares have lost around 40% from their June 2 peak, although they’re still up around 19% since the start of 2026.
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Analysts say the key to restoring the market’s faith is more visibility on the planned US listings of subsidiary SB Energy and an entity called Roze that SoftBank aims to set up. The debuts would boost SoftBank’s exposure to some of the power generation and robotics dimensions of the AI infrastructure boom.
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Investors are paying closer attention to the underlying value of SoftBank’s investments in energy and robotics, said David Dai, a managing director at Sanford C Bernstein in Hong Kong. Any updates on the projects would be a positive, he said, because “having a price tag on those assets would be very helpful.”
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Similarly, any further information on SoftBank’s pending acquisition of Switzerland-based ABB Ltd.’s robotics business would help lift investors’ mood, according to BTIG analyst Jesse Sobelson.
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Son’s company announced the ABB deal in October and said it would close in mid-to-late 2026. The purchase would give SoftBank “a scaled industrial robotics platform with revenue, customers and a clearer path to embed AI into real-world automation,” Sobelson wrote in a recent report.
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Gains from SoftBank’s stake in chip designer Arm Holdings Plc should also help boost the mood around its stock, said Bernstein’s Dai. Arm’s shares rallied more than 200% in the six months through June on expectations of booming demand for the company’s new central processing units — benefiting SoftBank, which owns almost 90% of the company.
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