Slovakia vs. Finland prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for Saturday’s bronze-medal game

It’s a tricky thing to handicap motivation in any sport, so it’s best not to get too caught up in it, but there are certain times when it becomes impossible to ignore.

Saturday’s bronze-medal game between Finland and Slovakia at the Winter Olympics is one of those instances.

While Finland will be heartbroken to be playing Saturday instead of Sunday, this is a massive opportunity for Slovakia.

The Slovaks have only won one Olympic medal in ice hockey (bronze in 2022), and they’ve never done so when NHL players participated in the tournament.

Slovakia vs. Finland odds, prediction

Finland gave Canada its best shot in Friday’s semifinal.

The Finns sprung to a 2-0 lead, but a couple of undisciplined penalties allowed the Canadians to get to work on the power play, which ultimately proved to be the difference.

It was a soul-sucking defeat for the Finns, who will be rueing a couple of missed opportunities to extend their lead before Canada found a game-tying goal midway through the third period.

In a lot of ways, Finland was built for that kind of game.

Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen of Team Finland celebrating a goal. Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

They’re a talented bunch, but they don’t have the depth and star power that Canada, Team USA, and Sweden boast, which forced Suomi to rely on structure and tenacity instead of speed and skill.

That made the Finns dangerous underdogs — they scored a win over Sweden and almost pulled the stunner against Canada — but vulnerable favorites.

Slovakia upset Finland in the tournament-opener, and Switzerland was up 2-0 in the third period of the quarterfinals before the Finns stormed back.

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Slovakia, on the other hand, is built to be a pesky underdog.

The Slovaks play a relentless style, relying on a physical forecheck and a willingness to engage in the dirty areas.

They’ve got some high-end talent, most notably Juraj Slafkovsky, but they’re not going to be able to run rampant over a roster full of NHLers.

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Instead, look for Slovakia to drag this game into the mud and dare Finland to match their intensity and will.

I doubt the Finns will be up for that just 24 hours after almost pulling off a historic upset, opening the door for Slovakia to not only get on the podium, but do it in style.

We’ll go price-hunting by backing the Slovaks on the alternate spread Saturday.

The Play: Slovakia -1.5 (-110, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.