Slovakia vs. Finland prediction: Men’s Olympic Hockey odds, preview, best bet

Two dark horses will kick off the Men’s Olympic Hockey Tournament in Milan on Wednesday morning (10 a.m. ET).

Slovakia, which is 65/1 to win the Gold Medal, is a +325 underdog against Finland, which is the fourth-favorite to win the tournament at 11/1.

The winner of this game will fancy its chances to earn a bye into the quarterfinals as either the winner of Group B, which also features Sweden and Italy, or as the best second-place finisher in the preliminary round.

Slovakia vs. Finland odds, prediction

Finland’s stock has dropped in the international circuit recently.

Suomi were a disappointment at last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off, and they followed that up with a poor showing at the 2025 IIHF World Championships.

There is plenty of star power on this roster, but the problem is that the Finns are unbalanced. The forward corps is terrific, but the defense lags behind the three heavyweights in this tournament. Miro Heiskanen does provide Finland with a true No. 1 rearguard, but the depth is a concern.

The goaltending is also a question mark, as Juuse Saros has struggled to find his form over the past two years for the Nashville Predators.

The good news for the Finns is that their scoring upside, which is powered by Sebastian Aho, Mikko Rantanen, and Roope Hintz, could easily provide cover for some defensive flaws, and Finland has a true checking line with Anton Lundell in between Eetu Luostarinen and Kaapo Kakko.

That said, the margins will just be a lot thinner for Finland compared to the likes of Canada, Team USA, and Sweden.

That makes Slovakia a dangerous underdog.

Slovakia’s Juraj Slafkovsky was drafted No. 1 overall in 2022. Getty Images

We are well beyond the golden era of Slovakian hockey that gifted us Zdeno Chara, Peter Bondra, Ziggy Palffy, Marian Hossa, Pavol Demitra, Lubomir Visnovsky, and Miroslav Satan (the team’s current general manager), but Slovakia has started to piece things back together. The country has produced some immense young talents like Juraj Slafkovsky and Simon Nemec, the top two picks in the 2022 NHL Draft, but this is a team that will need to be greater than the sum of its parts.

Slafkovsky will need to be a force up front with former NHLers Tomas Tatar and Adam Ruzicka, and Nemec will play a massive role on a blueline that features just two other current NHLers, albeit very competent ones in Erik Cernak and Martin Fehervary.

The wild card in this game will be Slovak goaltender Samuel Hlavaj. Currently plying his trade for Minnesota’s AHL team in Iowa, Hlavaj has a reputation as a game-stealer on the international stage. He was immense for Slovakia during qualification, and will need to carry that form into this tournament for this team to stand a chance.

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A game or two into the tournament, this handicap would look a little different. But this is not only Game 1 for both of these teams, but also the curtain-raiser for the competition. That brings with it plenty of volatility, as we just can’t be too sure how this tournament, the first to feature NHL players since 2014, will play out.

Moreover, Finland’s performance at the 4 Nations and a sleepy showing at the 2025 World Championships do not inspire confidence, especially since you’re being asked to lay some serious juice against a pesky side.

There is a risk that Finland’s talent just proves too much for Slovakia, but we’ll take a shot on the underdog to get this tournament started with a bang.

The Play: Slovakia +325 (BetMGM)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.