Sinking in Polls, Farage Plans Week of Attacks on Immigration

fipx7npy1{6mdskz(lfp][8b_media_dl_1.png Home Office, Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Under attack over his finances and dropping in the polls, Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK party is aiming to turn public attention to his supporters’ core concern: immigration. 

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While the number of migrants arriving in the country across the English Channel has nearly halved from the same time last year, Reform is planning to hold multiple press conferences next week on the issue. It will also hold a media event, most likely in the French port city of Calais, where many migrants board dangerous dinghies to reach the UK, according to a person familiar with the plans. Reform did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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The attacks would mark an early test of new Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s vulnerability. Since replacing Keir Starmer earlier last month, he has been keen to stay on familiar ground, announcing measures such as a cap on bus fares, greater devolution and a reduction in household energy bills. Migration threatens to be riskier territory for Burnham, who is already facing disquiet from backbench colleagues over reforms proposed during Starmer’s tenure.

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A total of 14,200 immigrants have arrived in the UK via small boats so far this year, down 44% compared to the same period last year. The decline has come as the Home Office and National Crime Agency have increased seizures of small-boat engines and improved enforcement cooperation with the French to prevent departures.

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Yet the Home Office has been hesitant to declare victory on Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledge of bringing down small-boat arrivals by targeting people-smuggling gangs, as a late-summer influx could boost the numbers. Last year’s arrivals were just 9% below the peak of just under 46,000 in 2022.

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On a trip to Sheffield on Friday, Burnham said Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s policies had “started to make a difference.” “Although this is the peak period of the year for crossings, overall, the number of crossings is down, the number of removals of people is up,” he told reporters. “We’ve made headway, but certainly more is needed.”

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The timing is fortuitous for Farage, with Europe now in an uproar after more than 50,000 people illegally who crossed the Spanish border between the African enclave of Ceuta and Morocco have now left.

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Reform has faced weeks of scrutiny over its finances, after it emerged that Farage had received an undisclosed sum of £5 million ($6.7 million) from a donor shortly before being elected as an MP. Further questions have been raised by newspapers over the probity of donations made to Reform that appear to have come from George Cottrell, a close aide to Farage who has previously been convicted of wire fraud in the US.

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Cottrell, Farage and Reform all deny any wrongdoing. But the slew of negative reports has knocked Reform’s ratings — having led polls for over a year, more recent surveys show the party level with Labour, or just eking out a gain.

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Farage’s personal favorability ratings have plummeted as well, with his net score hitting a post-2024 election nadir of -32, compared to Burnham’s +19, according to polling from More in Common.

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The Conservative Party, which has also tried to portray itself as an anti-immigration force despite being responsible for a huge influx of legal immigrants between 2020 and 2024, has also drawn attention to the migration crisis in Ceuta in an attempt to boost its own ratings.

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“If these illegal immigrants do make it to Spain, then the EU’s borderless Schengen zone means there is nothing to stop them coming straight to Calais and trying to get a boat across the Channel here,” the party’s home affairs spokesperson Chris Philp said in an emailed statement. “Spain’s border crisis could rapidly become our border crisis.”

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Asked about the Ceuta situation on Friday, Burnham said it was a “cause for concern”. “We are making contact with the Spanish government and Spanish authorities to provide support but also to understand the implications of that situation,” he said.

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