Should Texas national title-or-bust talk be directed more at Arch Manning or Steve Sarkisian?

So naturally, this question became whether it's a national championship-or-bust year for Manning in 2026.

"Absolutely, because this is one of those heralded players in college football history," Finebaum said. "We know what happened last year, but what is going to happen this year? If he finishes his career with any sort of title or any sort of playoff, there is no other way to characterize it. You hate to do it — because of all of the good things about him and his family, but that's just the reality of the situation." 

Then something curious happened, and it wasn't the part where Smith pushed back with the belief Manning will go on to a productive NFL career.

Finebaum back-tracked and put the pressure on Texas coach Steve Sarkisian. Smith followed.

"I lamented how Steve Sarkisian — who I like by the way — was too busy literally trying to assuage the concerns surrounding Arch Manning that he forgot to be the coach we knew him to be that got him the job at Texas," Smith said. "As far as I'm concerned, there is just as much if not more pressure on him, then there is on Arch Manning," 

Who has more pressure on them this season? That's an easy answer after looking at what's on the line for Manning and Sarkisian.

MORE: Lane Kiffin ditches social media as pressure ramps up

How much pressure on Arch Manning in Year 2 at Texas?  

We know what happened with Manning before last season. He was a Preseason All-American. Heisman Trophy favorite. Future No. 1 draft pick like his uncles Peyton and Eli. Sarkisian saw all that in real time. 

"Arch Manning wasn't going around on social media saying, ‘I'm going to be the first pick in the draft," Sarkisian said via Inside Texas. " He wasn't posting on social media, ‘I'm going to be the Heisman Trophy winner. He quite frankly went under the radar and just worked really hard." 

Manning had a disastrous opener in a 14-7 loss to No. 1 Ohio State and threw two interceptions in a 29-21 loss at Florida on Oct. 4. Manning was labeled a bust five starts into the season, even if that label was just as premature as the hype. 

"He doesn't play great and we don't play great and he takes in my opinion some real tough criticism, and some would take disrespectful criticism, but he didn't complain about it," Sarkisian said. 

Then, Manning turned up. In Texas' last seven regular-season games, Manning finished 146 of 235 (62.1%) for an average of 255.9 passing yards per game with 13 TDs and two interceptions. He closed the season with 221 passing yards, 155 passing yards and four total TDs in a 41-27 victory against No. 18 Michigan. 

Guess where Manning is now? Preseason All-American. Heisman Trophy favorite. Future No. 1 draft pick like his uncles Peyton and Eli. Plus, when is the last time a quarterback was held to a national championship or bust standard? Bryce Young at Alabama?

Young was a backup on the national championship team in 2020. He didn't win a national title as a starter, but he was a Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 pick. After some growing pains, Young led the Carolina Panthers to the NFL playoffs last season. 

Falling short of a national championship at Texas likely won't change when the real pressure begins for Manning. Peyton and Eli didn't win the Heisman or the national title – though fans in Knoxville are still angry about the 1997 Heisman Trophy voting. Arch will be compared more to his uncles at the next level. 

That doesn't mean every pre-snap read won't be over-analyzed this season at Texas, but the quarterback appears prepared for that scrutiny heading into the rematch with Ohio State on Sept. 12. 

"Week 2 is a big game, but we've got a bunch of big games and so we're just going to take it one day at a time," Manning said on Thursday. 

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How much pressure is on Steve Sarkisian in 2026? 

On "First Take," Finebaum aggressively pushed the pressure in Sarkisian's direction. 

"If they don't make it far as you said, the questions have to be asked about Steve Sarkisian," Finebaum said. "He's been to the playoff twice. We know all that, because he's been to the playoff twice. We're reminded of that by Texas officials every day. The problem is he has an amazing team."

Texas does have an amazing team. The Longhorns have six players on our 2027 NFL Draft Big Board, including Manning, edge rusher Colin Simmons, Auburn transfer receiver Cam Coleman and Pitt transfer linebacker Rasheem Biles. The backfield features Arizona State transfer Raleek Brown and NC State transfer Hollywood Smothers. 

Yes, this team is one of the most-talented teams in the FBS. Sarkisian led the Longhorns to the CFP semifinals in two of the last three seasons. Texas is 35-8 in that stretch – an .814 winning percentage that is sixth in the FBS behind Oregon (38-5. .884), Ohio State (37-6, .861), Georgia (36-6, .857), Notre Dame (34-7, .829) and Ole Miss (34-7 .829). Lane Kiffin – who was an assistant coach with Sarkisian at USC from 2001-03 – left the Rebels to take the LSU job this season. 

If this were basketball, two Final Fours in three years would be universally praised. But this isn't basketball. It's Texas. The state has five programs in our Preseason Top 25. This is without question, Sarkisian's best team since he arrived – and the blame would fall on him more than anyone else should the Longhorns not at least make the CFP in two seasons with Manning as the starter. 

So, yes, there is without a doubt more pressure on Sarkisian than Manning, but does that really mean national championship or bust? We'll see how that narrative spins after the Ohio State rematch. Sarkisian is 6-9 against top-10 teams at Texas, but the record drops to 2-7 against top-five teams.

Texas is 0-5 against Georgia and Ohio State under Sarkisian. Those are the heavyweight games the Longhorns need to win to end that national title-or-bust talk. He'll have to do it with Manning – who endorsed his coach at SEC Media Days.

"We all like him," Manning said. "We all trust him. I like him. I'm excited for year 2." 

Steve Sarkisian vs. top-10 teams at Texas

A look at Sarkisian's record against top-10 teams at Texas since 2021: 

*Denotes CFP game 
**Denotes SEC championship game

MORE: College Football playoff, bowl predictions