Sheinbaum’s Popularity Passes AMLO’s, Feeding Mexican Economic Optimism

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(Bloomberg) — President Claudia Sheinbaum is more admired by Mexicans than even her popular predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a status that is fueling economic optimism despite risks of a recession and the perils of a US trade war.

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Two-thirds of Mexicans, 67%, hold a positive image of Sheinbaum, putting her three points ahead of Lopez Obrador, according to LatAm Pulse, a survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News and released Monday. AMLO, as the former president is known, left office last year as one of Latin America’s most popular leaders, handing the reins of the region’s second-largest economy to his political protege.

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Sheinbaum’s management of the government won approval from 66% of respondents in April, up about five points from a month ago, while disapproval fell nearly six points to 28%.

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Mexico’s first female leader has earned admiration internationally, including from Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, for her steady handling of negotiations to avoid US tariffs that Donald Trump promised to impose on the country’s goods. That approach is now translating into faith among Mexicans that she will continue dodging the worst of Trump’s trade policies, and even into confidence that the country’s sluggish economy will improve.

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Despite Trump exempting Mexico from most tariffs, it is still facing levies on goods that are not covered by North America’s free trade agreement, along with steel, aluminum and the portion of finished automobiles that aren’t made in the US. The duties are threatening to exacerbate an economic slowdown that could push Mexico into recession: The central bank recently cut its 2025 growth forecast in half to 0.6%, and a Citi survey of analysts showed even lower expectations.

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But while about 80% of Mexicans believe tariffs have hurt the economy, roughly three-quarters say they are confident Sheinbaum will be able to negotiate new agreements to reduce them. Most Mexicans also see the country heading in the right direction overall, with 54% saying they expect the economy to improve over the next six months against 21% who see it worsening.

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The economy doesn’t even rank as one of the top three issues worrying Mexicans, according to the poll.

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The optimism shows that many Mexicans expect a deal with the US that would eliminate or at least reduce tariffs to levels that are lower than those placed on other countries, said Felipe Hernandez, Latin America economist for Bloomberg Economics. 

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But he added that while such a scenario would limit tariff effects on the economy, views among Mexicans are probably too rosy.